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8/4/05 Thursday August 4, 2005 MLB Picks (2)

We passed on all of the games yesterday.

Here are our picks for Thursday!

Chicago Cubs -112 over Philadelphia Phillies (2.0 Units) Great value here because we get to have Mark Prior at -123. I personally think this spread should be -140 with about a 60% probability of winning. Okay, on the surface this spread makes sense, the Phillies are 11 games above 500 at home so they deserve the respect. With that emotional walk-off winner yesterday, let's look for a let down game today. Also, the Phillies are just not what they seem to be against right handed pitching. They dominate lefties both at home and on the road. Mark Prior is a top-notch right hander, lets expect him to pitch a great game. His last performance against the Phillies, he pitched 8 innings and only gave up 1 run.

St. Louis Cardinals -105 over Florida Marlins (1.5 Units) The Cardinals could be -130 in a parallel universe. This is not so much a play for Jeff Suppan as it is a play for the Cardinals offense. They smash right-handed pitching especially at home. We see their offense rolling averaging exactly 7 runs in their past 7 games. I understand that AJ Burnett is good but the Marlins are only really 3-3 in his L6 road starts. The point is that the home field advantage coupled with an offensive machine in these Cardinals, we like our value.

 

 

 

August 04, 2005 Free Picks

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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