8/4/05 Thursday August 4, 2005 MLB Picks (2)

We passed on all of the games yesterday.

Here are our picks for Thursday!

Chicago Cubs -112 over Philadelphia Phillies (2.0 Units) Great value here because we get to have Mark Prior at -123. I personally think this spread should be -140 with about a 60% probability of winning. Okay, on the surface this spread makes sense, the Phillies are 11 games above 500 at home so they deserve the respect. With that emotional walk-off winner yesterday, let's look for a let down game today. Also, the Phillies are just not what they seem to be against right handed pitching. They dominate lefties both at home and on the road. Mark Prior is a top-notch right hander, lets expect him to pitch a great game. His last performance against the Phillies, he pitched 8 innings and only gave up 1 run.

St. Louis Cardinals -105 over Florida Marlins (1.5 Units) The Cardinals could be -130 in a parallel universe. This is not so much a play for Jeff Suppan as it is a play for the Cardinals offense. They smash right-handed pitching especially at home. We see their offense rolling averaging exactly 7 runs in their past 7 games. I understand that AJ Burnett is good but the Marlins are only really 3-3 in his L6 road starts. The point is that the home field advantage coupled with an offensive machine in these Cardinals, we like our value.