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8/19/05 Friday MLB Pick (1) We only have 1 play for Friday. We usually have a lot of Friday plays because we have a lot of systems for betting Game 1's of a series. Today, only 1 game falls into any of our systems.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays +103 over Texas Rangers (1.5 Units) I am sure you must look at this pick and say that the Devil Rays who are 48-73 suck, why bet on them? I know I did! First, the Devil Rays are still above 500 at home. Second, the Rangers are a torrid 1-9 L10. The Devil Rays are +10 Units at home this season. The point is that their awful record affects not only their road spreads but also their home spreads. This shouldn't be the case but public perception dictates the spread more than home/away statistics. If people believe the Devil Rays suck, their home spreads start having a lot of value. Anyways, the Devil Rays are +5.0 Units in Game 1's of the Series at home about half of their total home units. I have a system that I follow that involves going for above 500 home teams that are more than 10 games below 500 that is on a roll winning games at home and against a team struggling on the road that is on average 25 to 30 points off the mark. The Devil Rays should be -125 going up against the struggling Rangers and Juan Dominguez who has only posted 1 road start this season giving up 7 in that affair. Meanwhile, McClung for the D. Rays has really struggled but at least the D. Rays have won 4 of his past 6 starts.

I am kind of leaning towards the over in that game as well but have not yet decided. A later email will come if decided.