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8/24/05 Wednesday's MLB Picks (3)
Looks like we are starting to pick it back up. But as soon as I say
that we'll probably lose today. So pretend I did not say that.
Three picks for Wednesday. Two of them are favorites that I would
normally back on the run line but we plan to start taking more of them
money line. With the penant races heating up, the teams that we would
expect to win generally will with the proper motivation and
determination. Favorites if chosen correctly will fare better but
beware, favorites on average do worse at the end of the year.This is
because of the extra betting money that pours into baseball near the
playoffs as well as in NFL season.
Chicago Cubs -160 over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units)
The Braves are not good on the road. Lets preface that by saying they
are 10-5 (+5 Units) on the road versus lefties this season. In fact,
over the past 5 seasons, they are +33 Units on the road versus
lefties. Against right handers on the road, they are 20-28 (-9.4
Units) this season. Struggling against righties, the Braves are going
up against Mark Prior who is one of the top notch right handers in the
league. That's positive point number 1. Second, we are utilizing a
system that is 112-43 +42 units over the past 7 season. It has had
only 2 losing seasons in that span. This system was 82-22 over the
past 5 seasons. If our team is off a double digit offensive
performance, the betting system improves to a whopping 21-3 over the past 7
seasons. We like the Cubs chances here today. the betting system is not simple
but involves going for a team off a win in a non-divisional game going
against a lefty if they are NOT positive units versus lefties at
home/road so long as their opponent has won 3 or fewer games L5 and
has scored on average 4 or less runs L5.
St. Louis Cardinals -230 over Pittsburgh Pirates (0.5 Units)
We have struggled backing these Cardinals against the Cubs last week
going 0-3 in that span. We like them today. The best pitcher of the
year is on the mound in Chris Carpenter. He is 17-4 this season. As we
mentioned yesterday, backing teams off a shutout loss is easy money.
The Phillies proved it to us yesterday with a 10-2 winner. Chris
Carpenter is probably the #1 pitcher you would want on your side in
this situation. Anyways, the Cardinals are 5-0 this season off of a
shut out loss and 9-2 L2 years. To add to that, going for division
rivals this season coming off a game in which they gave up double
digit runs against the same opponent is +14 Units this season. We see
two angles here coinciding together and merging where the poor
performance of the Cardinals will pick up and the great performance
of the Pirates will die down. Carpenter will help us out a lot with a
great performance. Because of the large juice, we are only looking to
win 0.5 units on this play.
Minnesota Twins +105 over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units)
A fairly well system today indicates going for these Twins if they are
an underdog. They will be against Buehrle. This system has never had a
losing season the past 6 years but this season is currently 9-14 and
losing money. I do not know if this is the turning of the tide for
this system or just a blip on the radar. Going against Buehrle and a
White Sox team that scored 0 runs yesterday and you know we love going
for a team off a shut out loss. The thing about this system is that it
performs best when the opponent is coming off an outing where they
scored a few runs.
August 24, 2005 Free Picks