8/26/05 Friday's MLB Picks (3)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays +145 over Anaheim (Los Angeles) Angels (1.0 Units) Again, we see ourselves betting on these Devil Rays at home in Game 1 of a series where they are +6 Units this season. We took them in their series against the Rangers where they swept them. They are coming off a poor outing against the red-hot Indians. The Angels, on the other hand, are struggling so we like our home dog here today. The Angels are coming off a shut out loss, which we have seen this season is a sign not to go against them. But bettors have not caught on that this horrible Devil Rays team over 25 games behind 500 is above 500 at home.

Cincinnati Reds -120 over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units) I usually would not take the Reds in a game like this. The Pirates are home underdogs in a division rivalry game but we have to look beyond that a little bit. The Reds are one of the hottest teams since the break posting a record 10 games above 500. They are first in the league in runs scored and home runs scored since then. Griffey's resurgence has a lot to do with that. They have won two consecutive series. Although we are 2-8 backing these Reds, our two wins came when Harang had been on the mound. He is their ace and their only pitcher we can trust. I believe the spread in an alternate universe would be -110 or even pickem because of the highly publicized Griffey resurgence along with their great offensive performances as of late is boosting this spread to -120. I am utilizing a system for National League road dogs or small favorites going against a team off a series loss with some past performance data mixed in that is on average 50 points off. Although I do not believe the Reds are -170, I certainly think they are -150 material today.

Seattle Mariners - Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 +105 (1.0 Units) This is a really odd total because in the American League where scoring is way more than in the NL (DH), totals less than 8.5 grab your attention. I only like this total because of value and the fact that we can get it at +105. Plus I am looking at a system that is 16-5 for the overs the past 6 years that involves taking the overs in the game 1 of a series if the home team is more than 15 games below 500 and that they scored greater than 7 runs in their previous game. It is 16-5 only if the total were set to below 9! It is about 58% otherwise. Not bad.