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Friday's MLB Picks: July 1st, 2005 Inbox Turned a 3-1 night Thursday. The Reds were rain delayed. I easily called the Astros lacking offense, I just assumed the Reds bats would pick up a few more runs. Nevertheless, the game was a draw when it rained out. The Braves, on the other hand, lost for us the second game in a row.

14-4 L3 Days (+13.4 Units). We did well in our baseball plays this month.

We have another large slate of games today, Friday July 1st, 2005. Since I am in Las Vegas this weekend for a convention, I will not be able to give appropriate write-ups for the games but my picks will still be mailed out.

Washington Nationals +140 over Chicago Cubs (1.0 Units) I had a 2.0 unit play going against Mark Prior in his last start against the White Sox. I expected with the White Sox creaming right handers at home and this being Prior's 1st start back from his injury that it would have been a great value play. Boy was I wrong as we saw Prior 1-hit the White Sox. The truth of the matter is that Prior's dominant performance in that game gives us great value going against him again. You see, Livan Hernandez is no slob himself posting a 11-2 mark. The Nationals are not the greatest of teams on the road but focusing too much on a road record can be deceiving as we see the Nationals as 13-10 +6.5 units on the road this season against Righties. They are not strong against lefties as they are only 5-10. With the Nationals coming into this game off a sweep, you can expect them to bring their confidence with them and don't expect Prior to one-hit yet another team good against righties. So we have great value in this play.

New York Mets +110 over Florida Marlins (1.5 Units) Strong system going for the Mets today. I initially had them at 2.0 units but dropped it down to 1.5 units because the Marlins have been playing well recently. But we like the Mets at home.

Cincinnati Reds +130 (1.5 Units) over Houston Astros The Astros suck against lefties but we still like the Reds even though they have a righty on the mound. Because Luke Hudson is unknown to most bettors, the money will be flying towards the Astros. This gives us value with the Reds, as simple as that.

Toronto Blue Jays +180 over Boston Redsox (1.0 Units) Against +180 does not need a large percentage chance

Detroit Tigers +160 over New York Yankees (1.0 Units) We actually identified these Tigers as having a 45% chance of winning and they are a +160 underdog. Tigers are at home and we expect them to come back and perform well.

Cleveland Indians +105 over Baltimore Orioles (1.0 Units) Pitching Matchup systems that won 60% of the time last year going 49-33.

Texas Rangers -105 over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) Pitching Matchup systems that won 60% of the time last year going 49-33.

Already 1-0 today with the Tigers and Blue Jays ahead. The Reds are down and the rest are scoreless.

I know this email is probably too late but I have a opinion 1 Unit Play on San Francisco Giants +225. Value play here, sorry for not posting it earlier.

 

July 01, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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