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Monday July 4th Picks Off a 2-2, +1.125 Unit day. (+0.85 for flat unit bettors).

Costly errors and rare fate helped us have a winning day yesterday. The error by the Cubs in the Top of the 11th helped the Nationals score 2 runs. Reminds me of the costly error by Khalil Greene leading to the Giants victory. Although the bounces were going against us earlier, they are finally coming our way. This is what I love about the baseball season, there are so many games that everything evens out so long as you consistently choose value.

Anyways, my picks for July 4th are: 4 Picks. Possible 5th Pick.

Texas Rangers over Boston Redsox (1.0 Units) Went against the Red Sox twice, then went for them. Was only 1-2 in that span but still positive units. We want to go against them today. First of all, the Rangers are great offensively. Secondly, last year and this season combined, the Rangers are +25 Units at home against Right Handers and incredible 61-28 record in that span. They improve to 24-9 +12 units if coming off a loss. The Red Sox are not nearly as impressive on the road as people believe. The Rangers lost a game where Kenny Rogers gave them a magnificent pitching performance yesterday and expect the Rangers bats to make up for it today.

Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers Gm#1 (1.5 Units) The Indians are such an underappreciated team. I have gone 2-0 this past weekend backing them on the road against the Orioles. Their record, although third in the AL Central would be good enough to be contending for a division championship in most other divisions in the MLB.

Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers Gm#2 (1.5 Units) CONDITIONAL Take the Indians in the second game of the Double Header if and only if the Indians score 7 or more runs in their first contest.

Colorado Rockies over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5 Units) Well the Rockies are an interesting bunch. They pulled out 2 games against the NL leading Cardinals. You could have also made the claim that they could have won 3. I guess the point is that they are coming home with confidence going up against the lackluster, poor offensive Dodgers. Second of all, the Rockies are throwing Byung Kim on the mound who has been horrible. This produces an Underdog Rockies team that has been tremendous at earning money as a home dog against division rivals.

Philadelphia Phillies over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.5 Units) Read the newspapers, the Pirates just came back for the largest deficit of the season to win a game. And they did it on the road. This means we should take the Phillies. The Pirates are coming home from a road game in which they are probably a bit too thrilled. I am not sure they can get their focus and act together for this game today. Although this game is a "state rivalry", they are NOT division rivals. We can expect the Pirates to give 100% tomorrow versus the Cardinals or the Reds but not the Phillies.

 

July 04, 2005 Free Picks

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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