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Friday July 8 MLB Picks (8 picks)
A see-saw day the past 2 days going 5-6 (-2 Units) in that span.
Here are my picks for Friday. My strongest play is on the Detroit Tigers tomorrow. It is worthy of a 2.0 unit play but I am splitting it
up into 1.5 unit Money Line and 1.0 unit Run Line.
Detroit Tigers -120 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units)
There is a statistical anomaly at work here. 4 angles collide to bring
us a system that has produced 32 of 45 winners dating back to last
year. +17 units in that span. This is a wonderful system. The Tigers
are playing well. The Devil Rays are not. The Tigers eat up left
handed pitching this season going 12-7 and the Devil Rays struggle
against it going 7-20. In games against lefties, the Devil Rays have
lost on average of 2.3 runs per game this season. There are many
reasons to love this play as our statistical simulations predict an
average margin of victory of 2.2 runs for the road team here.
Detroit Tigers -1.5 RUNLINE (+120) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units)
You can put 2.0 units on the Money Line and skip the run line or place
the bets according to my units structure. 80% of road teams that win
cover the run line and with us predicting a 2.2 run margin of victory
getting the underdog points on the run line is a good deal.
Texas Rangers +143 over Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 Units)
The Rangers are 11-5 this season at home off a loss versus right
handed pitching. The Blue Jays have Roy Halladay on the mound but we
feel there is a lot of value taking the Rangers at +143 especially
when we dont believe the Toronto offense can put up enough runs to
merit their bloated spread. There is also a situational advantage here
for the Rangers in that they are at home rested while the Blue Jays
are travelling from a home game in another time zone on the road. This
does not bode well for the road team in the first game of the series.
Take the dog here as we see it have the value.
Colorado Rockies -110 over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units)
Adjusting to the first game in Coors Field can be troublesome as there
is a climate difference to adjust to. We see the Padres travelling off
a road win in Houston to a cooler, harsher climate against Colorado.
We see the environmental advantage for the Rockies. We also see the
Rockies putting up a lot of numbers against Tim Stauffer as his
bloated NL ERA of almost 5.00 has never pitched at Coors Field.
Baltimore Orioles +123 over Boston Redsox (1.0 Units)
Sidney Ponson is one of my favorite pitchers to back because he
consistently flies under the radar. We went against the Orioles
yesterday because we saw them as a .500 club at home against left
handers. Well, they are spectactular at home against right handers.
With everybody backing the Red Sox, we will take the contrarion and
back the Orioles.
Chicago Whitesox -1.5 +105 over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units)
The White Sox have a strong home field advantage and it is only going
to be stronger in the first game of a series. What hurts the Athletics
is that they have to face John Garland. Look for the White Sox to
really put on the hurt against the weak offensive Athletics.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135 over Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 Units)
The Braves may be tired tomorrow after playing a double header but
doubtful. They played the DH games at home and won them handedly. I
see the Braves bringing their confidence with them into this series
and looking to finish off the first half strong. Heck, with the +135,
you got to love your chances.
Colorado Rockies - San Diego Padres OVER (1.0 Units)
This game bodes well for the over. I do not think I ever really like
any game of the Padres to go over but with Tim Stauffer pitching and
the Padres bats lighting it up yesterday as well the Rockies
yesterday, we expect to see the friendly confines of Coors field to
bring us an easy over.
July 08, 2005 Free Picks