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Who do you think will win the World Series?
 Rangers   Yankees   Dodgers
 Devil Rays   Red Sox   Phillies
 Cubs  Angels  Giants

Friday July 8 MLB Picks (8 picks) A see-saw day the past 2 days going 5-6 (-2 Units) in that span.

Here are my picks for Friday. My strongest play is on the Detroit Tigers tomorrow. It is worthy of a 2.0 unit play but I am splitting it up into 1.5 unit Money Line and 1.0 unit Run Line.

Good luck.

Detroit Tigers -120 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units) There is a statistical anomaly at work here. 4 angles collide to bring us a system that has produced 32 of 45 winners dating back to last year. +17 units in that span. This is a wonderful system. The Tigers are playing well. The Devil Rays are not. The Tigers eat up left handed pitching this season going 12-7 and the Devil Rays struggle against it going 7-20. In games against lefties, the Devil Rays have lost on average of 2.3 runs per game this season. There are many reasons to love this play as our statistical simulations predict an average margin of victory of 2.2 runs for the road team here. Result: Pending

Detroit Tigers -1.5 RUNLINE (+120) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units) You can put 2.0 units on the Money Line and skip the run line or place the bets according to my units structure. 80% of road teams that win cover the run line and with us predicting a 2.2 run margin of victory getting the underdog points on the run line is a good deal. Result: Pending

Texas Rangers +143 over Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 Units) The Rangers are 11-5 this season at home off a loss versus right handed pitching. The Blue Jays have Roy Halladay on the mound but we feel there is a lot of value taking the Rangers at +143 especially when we dont believe the Toronto offense can put up enough runs to merit their bloated spread. There is also a situational advantage here for the Rangers in that they are at home rested while the Blue Jays are travelling from a home game in another time zone on the road. This does not bode well for the road team in the first game of the series. Take the dog here as we see it have the value. Result: Pending

Colorado Rockies -110 over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units) Adjusting to the first game in Coors Field can be troublesome as there is a climate difference to adjust to. We see the Padres travelling off a road win in Houston to a cooler, harsher climate against Colorado. We see the environmental advantage for the Rockies. We also see the Rockies putting up a lot of numbers against Tim Stauffer as his bloated NL ERA of almost 5.00 has never pitched at Coors Field. Result: Pending

Baltimore Orioles +123 over Boston Redsox (1.0 Units) Sidney Ponson is one of my favorite pitchers to back because he consistently flies under the radar. We went against the Orioles yesterday because we saw them as a .500 club at home against left handers. Well, they are spectactular at home against right handers. With everybody backing the Red Sox, we will take the contrarion and back the Orioles. Result: Pending

Chicago Whitesox -1.5 +105 over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) The White Sox have a strong home field advantage and it is only going to be stronger in the first game of a series. What hurts the Athletics is that they have to face John Garland. Look for the White Sox to really put on the hurt against the weak offensive Athletics. Result: Pending

Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135 over Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 Units) The Braves may be tired tomorrow after playing a double header but doubtful. They played the DH games at home and won them handedly. I see the Braves bringing their confidence with them into this series and looking to finish off the first half strong. Heck, with the +135, you got to love your chances. Result: Pending

Colorado Rockies - San Diego Padres OVER (1.0 Units) This game bodes well for the over. I do not think I ever really like any game of the Padres to go over but with Tim Stauffer pitching and the Padres bats lighting it up yesterday as well the Rockies yesterday, we expect to see the friendly confines of Coors field to bring us an easy over. Result: Pending


July 08, 2005 Free Picks


Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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