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Friday July 15 MLB Picks
2-1 yesterday, sweeping our premium picks and going +1.95 Units for
the day. One of the other members of my team brought the Devil Rays at
+180 to our attention yesterday as being a good play. Under normal
conditions it would have been a play. But this season, we have noticed
a larger home field advantage and with the D-rays being more than 25
games below 500 on the road alone, we scratched them from the list.
Our plays on Philadelphia and Milwaukee were home field advantage
Anyways, onto the plays for Friday.
Only 3 plays today:
Kansas City Royals +160 over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units)
Changing pace from yesterday where we backed only home teams, we are
backing a large road dog. The Tigers are 12-19 at home against right
handed pitching. Hardly anything to smile about. It is true that the
Royals are 7-20 on the road versus righties themselves but we see a
near 50% betting angle for road dogs against division rivalries at
work here for the Royals.
Chicago Cubs - Pittsburgh Pirates OVER total (1.0 Units)
We are going to see too much respect given to Kerry Wood here today.
His ERA is near 5.00. The Pirates struggles offensively coming into
today historically have combined with the "too much respect" angle and
has yielded an over percentage of 58% over the past 7 years. This is
the reason the over/under has not been posted for this game yet.
New York Yankees - Boston Redsox OVER 10.5 runs (1.5 Units)
The Red Sox average 6.8 runs per game at home against right handed
pitching if coming off a loss dating back to last year. The Yankees
average 6 runs per game on the road versus lefties dating back to last
year. With a total at 10.5, the game will sail over the total if both
teams score at least 5 runs. Tim Redding has a very very daunting task
at hand facing a Red Sox team off a loss. Watch out, the Red Sox could
single-handedly make this game sail over by themselves. I imagine the
juice might get too high. If so, drop this play down to a 1.0 unit.
July 15, 2005 Free Picks