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Wednesday July 20, 2005 MLB Picks
A 2-2 +0.30 Units day yesterday. You may even have been negative
depending on the spreads you got. A lot of you had nasty juice on the
Yankees-Rangers over/under. Had I known the juice would be that nasty,
I would not have called that play.
Anyways, we were lucky to even go 2-2 as we saw our Blue Jays run line
barely come in and the Rangers pull out 2 runs in the bottom of the
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 RUNLINE +140 over Milwaukee Brewers (1.50 Units)
This looks like a great pitching matchup on the surface. Ben Sheets
versus Mark Mulder. We predict this to be one-sided. The Cardinals are
40-21 (+7.6 UNITS) against right handed pitching, averaging 5.2 runs
per game. This improves to 23-9 (+7.11 UNITS) at home where they
average 5.8 runs per game. To make it tick, if they are coming off a
loss and are at home against a righty, they are 10-2 (+6.70 UNITS)
averaging 6.7 runs per game. In this spot, they are 8-4 on the
RUNLINE. This means that the Cardinals are only 30-19 (+0.90 UNITS) in
every other situation versus righties. We got them at the right time.
The Brewers are 20-31 on the road but what's worse is that they are
3-8 on the road versus lefties. Mulder is a pretty darn good lefty and
we see the Brewers bats struggling today.
St. Louis Cardinals - Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 (1.00 Units)
We see the Cardinals scoring runs here today even against Ben Sheets.
We do not expect much from the Brewers but in case they keep it close
and make us lose our Run Line, we should get this over. As long as the
Cardinals get 5 or more runs we will win one of these two wagers. Plus
the name recognition of both of these pitchers is giving us a total
that is about 1 full run off of where it should be based on the
Cardinals motivation today. Plus, I expect a 7-3 game anyways.
Remember last week in Game #2 of the Red Sox - Yankees rivalry how we
explained how strong the Red Sox were offensively off a loss versus
righties. We used this identical explanation to predict the Rangers as
winners yesterday. We were correct in our conclusion but we did not
expect the Rangers to only get 2 runs. Nevertheless, the Red Sox won
that game 17-1.
Today we see the Rangers in a similar situation against a no-name
right-handed pitcher at home. The Rangers are not off a loss but
expect them to feel as if they had. Yesterday they were very patient
at the plate, taking every pitch. Mussina got to 100 pitches in no
time. By the time Torre pulled him out, the Rangers had scored
NOTHING. I expect the Rangers bats to be more aggressive here today
against A. Small and it might not be pretty.
This is what I've got on the game.
Texas Rangers -115 MONEYLINE over New York Yankees (1.5 Units)
Texas Rangers -1.5 +165 over New York Yankees (1.0 Units)
July 20, 2005 Free Picks