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Monday July 25 MLB Pick (1 Pick) A 2-2 -0.85 Units day.

When Aramis Ramirez hit that 2-run HR in the 8th, I am sure we all cringed. Larussa managed the game exactly as I suspected by aggressively using his bullpen. With no game tomorrow and coming off a home loss, La Russa did the best he could by changing up his bullpen almost every batter to get better matchups.

The Cubs are a scary team to go against because they can hit HRs and a HR can change the game completely. I am 7-11 this season going against the Cubs so this is definitely something I will be more cautious with.

Our Monday Pick I only have one play for today and it is a 1.5 unit play.

Detroit Tigers -110 over Seattle Mariners (1.5 Units) Please! The Tigers are only -110 on the road today with Nate Robertson on the mound? Robertson has a 3.32 ERA in 19 season starts. His W/L record sucks but the Tigers offense had been so bad for so long. Now they are picking up. The Tigers showed me something in Game 5 and that is they have heart. We bet against them yesterday because it was the 5th game of a series where home field advantage we felt was nullified. With the Twins off Monday and the Tigers having to play, the advantage clearly went to the Twins. But these Tigers battled at home. The Tigers get love at home and this spread would have been -150. But because they are on the road, there is no love. They are still 25-23 on the road. Take the nice value here as we see a good performance by the lefty Robertson as we see the Mariners only averaging 3.9 runs per game at home versus lefties. They average 4.2 runs per game at home versus righties. The only thing keeping this from being a GOM or even a GOY is that the Tigers do not do so well against righties. Look at their lineup, they are built to BEAT lefties. I guess that is why the Tigers are 8-1 against lefties on the road.

Good luck.

 

July 25, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/13/11

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Diamondbacks 94-68 +27.70
Brewers 96-66 +20.77
Tigers 95-67 +19.91
Phillies 102-60 +14.30
Rangers 96-66 +13.34
Full Table >>
Home
Brewers 57-24 +25.23
Diamondbacks 51-30 +13.96
Rangers 52-29 +7.69
Tigers 50-31 +7.61
Yankees 52-29 +7.38
Full Table >>
Road
Mets 43-38 +17.61
Diamondbacks 43-38 +13.74
Tigers 45-36 +12.30
Cardinals 45-36 +10.67
White Sox 43-38 +10.61
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Diamondbacks 70-44 +29.54
Brewers 78-48 +23.42
Rangers 70-45 +13.60
Tigers 65-47 +12.66
Cardinals 71-52 +8.41
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
D'rays 31-19 +14.26
Yankees 34-17 +12.92
Phillies 30-13 +9.49
Tigers 30-20 +7.25
Giants 26-18 +6.32
Full Table >>

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