7/30/05 Saturday July 30, 2005 MLB Pick (1) Washington Nationals +130 over Florida Marlins (1.0 Units) Again, going against public perception. Everybody knows the Nationals are struggling right now and know the Marlins are playing well. This gives us value. I understand that momentum has a lot to do with baseball and the rule of thumb is to play on teams playing well and play against teams struggling. This should mean the Marlins are the pick, right? I disagree for a really simple reason that most people do not pay much attention to. Look at the Nationals' past 4 games. They lost each and every one of those games by exactly 1 run. I am following a very simple system that includes playing on road teams off of 2 or more 1-run losses that has done quite well. After losing these games by 1 run, expect the Nationals to come out and do all the little things necessary to make sure that they get some runs. John Patterson is a solid pitcher for the Nationals to count on. The Nationals also are +4 units this season on the road versus righties.

I only rated it a 1 unit play based on the fact that the Nationals were having trouble scoring lately coupled with the fact that the betting system itself had been doing poorly over the past 2 years.