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7/31/05 Sunday's MLB Picks

Chicago Whitesox -105 over Baltimore Orioles (1.5 Units) The White Sox are 109-69 (+32 units) dating back to last year versus right handed pitching. This is still 50-38 (+14 units) on the road versus right handed pitching. With Freddy Garcia on the mound, we like the value at nearly a pickem with these all of a sudden streaking White Sox.

Florida Marlins -115 over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) It may look like we are wavering by taking the Nationals yesterday and now going against them but since we see the betting public favoring the Nationals today with Livan Hernandez on the mound versus the Marlins playing newbie Brian Moehler, we see value in these Marlins. You see, the Nationals have been struggling offensively. They only scored more than 4 runs three times this month. That is just horrible. History supported the Nationals yesterday manufacturing extra runs and that is why we backed them. The fact that they could not get anything going is just pathetic. Sunday's game is an early morning game which also hurts the Nationals as well. You see, for morning games, teams do not have the time/chance for batting practice. As a result, morning games can tend to be lower scoring. I don't care how good Hernandez is, if the Nationals do not score, there's no value with them. We will take the Marlins today for 1 unit.

I was considering the Indians too today but because the spread is at -135 at some places, the value I expected to be there just is not. The Indians are 25-14 on the road versus righties, the Mariners are 12-20 at home versus righties. There's also a 66% system for small favorites that pertain to these Indians.

Add the following play.

Cleveland Indians -127 over Seattle Mariners (1.5 Units) The difference between -127 and -135 to me is huge. Seeing them at -135 last night was caution enough to stop it from a play because of the fear the spread would jump to -140 or so. It did not and therefore is a play. As I mentioned in my earlier email, the Indians are just playing well right now on the road and are hitting well. The Mariners are a lousy hitting team and even worse against right handed pitching.