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7/31/05 Sunday's MLB Picks
Chicago Whitesox -105 over Baltimore Orioles (1.5 Units)
The White Sox are 109-69 (+32 units) dating back to last year versus
right handed pitching. This is still 50-38 (+14 units) on the road
versus right handed pitching. With Freddy Garcia on the mound, we like
the value at nearly a pickem with these all of a sudden streaking
Florida Marlins -115 over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units)
It may look like we are wavering by taking the Nationals yesterday and
now going against them but since we see the betting public favoring
the Nationals today with Livan Hernandez on the mound versus the
Marlins playing newbie Brian Moehler, we see value in these Marlins.
You see, the Nationals have been struggling offensively. They only
scored more than 4 runs three times this month. That is just horrible.
History supported the Nationals yesterday manufacturing extra runs and
that is why we backed them. The fact that they could not get anything
going is just pathetic. Sunday's game is an early morning game which
also hurts the Nationals as well. You see, for morning games, teams do
not have the time/chance for batting practice. As a result, morning
games can tend to be lower scoring. I don't care how good Hernandez
is, if the Nationals do not score, there's no value with them. We will
take the Marlins today for 1 unit.
I was considering the Indians too today but because the spread is at
-135 at some places, the value I expected to be there just is not. The
Indians are 25-14 on the road versus righties, the Mariners are 12-20
at home versus righties. There's also a 66% system for small favorites
that pertain to these Indians.
Add the following play.
Cleveland Indians -127 over Seattle Mariners (1.5 Units)
The difference between -127 and -135 to me is huge. Seeing them at
-135 last night was caution enough to stop it from a play because of
the fear the spread would jump to -140 or so. It did not and therefore
is a play. As I mentioned in my earlier email, the Indians are just
playing well right now on the road and are hitting well. The Mariners
are a lousy hitting team and even worse against right handed pitching.
July 31, 2005 Free Picks