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6/14/05 Tuesday NBA+MLB Picks (Premium: 4, Free: 0)
Another NBA+MLB 4-Pack
Up +1.80 Units Yesterday.
That puts our total to +20.0 units this month having me at #6 by the
National Sports Monitor.
An additional Free Pick (1.0 Unit) may be added to our by 6PM EST so
don't miss it in case I post it.
MY PICKS FOR TUESDAY
Spurs-Pistons Under 171.0 (3.0 Units)
Despite going over the Total in Game 2. A lot of that had to do with
the referees. Calling a lot of fouls in the first quarter led to 19
free throw attempts in the first quarters. Getting in foul trouble
keeps teams from being tenacious at defense. This will change in Game
#3 as we expect to see the Spurs-Pistons to become extremely cautious
with the ball.
We see incredible value getting the total at 171. The NBA rarely makes
games with a lower total and this is a perfect example of a situation
where they SHOULD! First of all, the Spurs, winners of Game 1 only
scored 85 points in Game 1, if doubled would not even match this
total. Second, the Pistons are focusing their attention to their
Defense in preparation for Game 2. The NBA Finals is notorious for
having many unders. The under is 46-24 over the past 9 seasons in the
NBA Finals Game 2 and beyond. Game 1's tend to be the highest scoring
of games. For game 1 to total only 154 points, we expect to see a
dogfight and are doubting Game 1's total to be beat by 17 points! When
both teams in the NBA Finals have a 68% record or better, our system
for the under becomes 22-6-2. When the total is set to 185 or less,
this system has gone 12-0-2 for the Under spanning the past 9 seasons.
This is an extremely good bet and the Unders in this series will only
get better as the Series moves forward.
Chicago White Sox -120 over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5 Units)
My colleague opened up my eyes to an interesting system. Betting on
the White Sox at home after a home loss is a winning proposition the
past 6 years. In fact, it is pretty strong. Not only do we like the
White Sox for that reason, their hurler for Tuesday is 7-1 with a
decent ERA going against a Diamondbacks team that has shown it can
Detroit Tigers +120 over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units)
We trust Jake Peavy to pitch strong but we do not believe his batters
can back him up with enough runs. Again, as +120 dog, we believe the
Tigers are a strong play coming back home from a long and
dissapointing road trip.
Oakland Athletics +115 over New York Mets (1.5 Units)
Don't watch now but the Athletics are starting to hit. They are coming
off a series win against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand are
going on the road off a home series loss. We see the Mets spirits here
on a down note versus the high spirits of the Oakland Athletics . We
have been pretty successfull lately going against road teams off a
series loss. An interesting dynamic folks are missing is that the
Athletics are still a respectable home team at 15-13 with the Mets
being only 10-16 on the road. The Mets are getting the love today
because of Glavine but we feel that the Athletics should be smaller
underdogs. The Mets have not won a game in Glavine's last 3 road
starts. Things won't change today.
June 14, 2005 Free Picks