6/15/05 Wednesday's MLB Picks (Premium: 1, Free: 1) MLB Plays yesterday up +1.82 Units.

Game of the Month
Philadelphia Phillies -120 over Seattle Mariners (2.0 Units) Some background information: The Phillies have won about 5 series' in a row. In order for them to win the series against the Mariners, they would need to win the next two but that type of reasoning will get you killed if you bet it blindly.

The Phillies averaged 6 runs per game against the Brewers. Averaged 7.3 runs per game against the Rangers, averaged 7.5 runs per game against the Diamondbacks, averaged 7 runs per game against the Giants, averaged 6.3 runs per game against the Braves, etc. The Phillies have been hitting well. I have a base betting system that I use to predict small favorites that win at a 70% range. The Mariners are coming off a win having only scored 3 runs. We do not see the Mariners scoring a lot of runs but what we do see if a revival of the Phillies offense today. Massaging the 70% system, we can derive strong 80% and a surprising 100% system. 2 unit play.

Chicago Cubs -102 over Florida Marlins (1.0 Units) FREE PICK I truly do not understand the line here. I feel the Cubs should truly be a -130 or possibly more a favorite. First, the Cubs have Maddux a highly reliable pitcher on the mound. Although AJ Burnett is a good pitcher with a strong ERA straddling around 3.00 ERA, the Marlins have lost in Burnett's last 4 road starts. 3 of those starts were quality pitching but it does not help when the Marlins only averaged 3.25 runs per game in those 4 starts. This is not surprising considering that the Marlins are only 11-15 on the road. The Cubs are a strong home team looking to get the Series Win against a non-divisional rival. This is worthy of a play but I only focus on plays that have at least 15% of value. What makes this play worthy is that home teams coming off a double digit shuout win against the team it is currently facing is 21-6 with an average margin of victory 2.0 runs over the past 6 years.

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