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6/16/05 Thursday's MLB Picks (Premium: 2, Free: 1)
All picks are on my website today. No time to create the Paypal links, etc.
San Antonio Spurs - Detroit Pistons under 172 (3.0 Units) NBA GOY
Down 6.6 units taking the unders in this series for Games 2 and 3.
That is okay, we will continue the under trend as we expect the series
to get lower scoring as the season progresses. You see, in every
series, the defensive intensity picks up in the later games. Also,
teams such as the Pistons and Spurs start taking care of the
basketball because each posession becomes more important. At the end
of Game 3, both coaches preached this exact point. If not for a fluke
52 point 3rd quarter in Game 3 or a fluke 100 point 1st half of Game
2, those games would have sailed under the total easily. I expect both
team to come into this game with a no-die attitude. The Spurs are off
a loss, not wanting to breathe life into the Pistons. The Pistons, on
the other hand, do not want to go down 3-1 in this series.
Cincinnati Reds +115 over Atlanta Braves (1.5 Units) MLB GOW
Yes, I understand that the Reds got swept. Just following a 70% ATS
system that involves going for good homes teams with poor overall
records against a poor road team. Look back at the Reds' home games
prior to playing the Red Sox. They were beating up on poor road teams.
They were putting up runs like crazy and expect that to continue
today. In fact, the Reds are 3-0 in this system this year and are
indicative of a team that just sucks but should get respect at home
like the Rockies.
Pittsburgh Pirates +190 over New York Yankees (1.0 Units) FREE PICK
Very unpopular play here. It seems as if I have been going against the
Big Unit everytime he pitches. This is quite of a change of pace for
me as I tend to back home teams looking to get sweeps in the third and
final game of a series especially with late comeback wins in Game 2.
In fact, during my great run, I have been 4-0 in those situations. I
would never back the Yankees at -200 unless doing the Run Line so let
me show you why I am backing the Pirates today. First of all, teams
that are +175 or higher dogs win about 33.1% of the time. That is
worse than a 1 in 3 chance. But did you know that betting on them
blindly would have produced +28 units over the past 6 years. It makes
sense, most baseball bettors are not in it for the long term. They bet
on the team they feel will win at a high percentage regardless of the
juice. The whole addage: "You don't pay juice on winners." I never bet
anything blindly, I pick my spots and I have identified the Pirates
today as a team with a 40+% chance of winning. Our break-even
percentage is 34.5% so we see this as a play with value. The moneyline
will get higher adding even more value. Anyways, we are looking at a
few systems here that deal with interleague road teams off of a loss
and have identifed a very satisfactory system for dogs +180 or greater
that has gone 18-17 over the past 5 years. This is a good let down
spot for the otherwise struggling Yankees. By winning game 2, they
have already won this series and they may let down thinking they will
be invincible with the Randy Johnson on the mound. Randy is not what
he used to be so going against him at +190 spells V-A-L-U-E.
June 16, 2005 Free Picks