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6/17/05 Friday's MLB Picks
Placing my premium picks on my site for free again today. Too sick
today to post a paypal link and it does not help getting swept on all
picks again for the second straight day.
Toronto Blue Jays -127 over Milwaukee Brewers (1.5 Units) MLB GOW
Interleague games are tough to handicap because pitchers in the NL
that seem good because of the weaker lineups and the pitcher batting
can really stink it up in the AL. The converse is true of a bad AL
pitcher. What we do know about Interleague games is that the home team
has an advantage. In fact, the advantage is quite strong in Game #1.
So we are making a play against the Brewers as they are posting a
12-24 road record. Look back at the archive and you saw us go against
the Brewers in their Game#1 versus the Devil Rays. We are following
interleague systems that have gone 38-18 last 6 years and another one
that has gone 53-31 last 4 years.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +160 over St. Louis Cardinals (1.5 Units) MLB GOW
Not a popular pick going against the Cardinals and backing a Devil
Rays team that has a negative stigma. This is exactly why there is
value in this play. The Devil Rays are an above 500 home team. Since
this is the first game of an interleague match the spread should be a
bit smaller. What improves is that we see the Cardinals struggling
just a little bit. They are only averaging 3 runs over their past 5
games and are coming into this game off a series loss. The D-Rays are
coming into the series off a series win.
Visit EasyBaseballBetting.com for explanations and unit amounts. This
is the first time we have introduced run line betting to our arsenal
but we have analyzed them for years and feel confident to start
betting them. We are following a trend where in the first game of an
interleague series, the home team has an advantage. In fact,
League-wide American League homers have a 6% more likelihood to beat
the run line than the National League when dealing with the first game
of an Interleague series.
This season betting the Run Line for American League Homer favorites
blindly in the first game of an interleague series has gone 10-4. You
never want to bet anything blindly so you want to pick your spots. For
example, if that National League team is coming off a series loss,
then the betting system goes to 35-35 overall over the past 6 years. With
runlines, we turn our favorites into hefty dogs so achieving 50% is
good. We are picking 6 decent run lines today with even better
probabilities of hitting than the 50%.
CLEVELAND -1.5 (142)
NY YANKEES -1.5 (166)
BOSTON -1.5 (116)
TAMPA BAY 149
BALTIMORE -1.5 (100)
TEXAS -1.5 (132)
OAKLAND -1.5 (166)
June 17, 2005 Free Picks