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6/17/05 Friday's MLB Picks Placing my premium picks on my site for free again today. Too sick today to post a paypal link and it does not help getting swept on all picks again for the second straight day.

Toronto Blue Jays -127 over Milwaukee Brewers (1.5 Units) MLB GOW Interleague games are tough to handicap because pitchers in the NL that seem good because of the weaker lineups and the pitcher batting can really stink it up in the AL. The converse is true of a bad AL pitcher. What we do know about Interleague games is that the home team has an advantage. In fact, the advantage is quite strong in Game #1. So we are making a play against the Brewers as they are posting a 12-24 road record. Look back at the archive and you saw us go against the Brewers in their Game#1 versus the Devil Rays. We are following interleague systems that have gone 38-18 last 6 years and another one that has gone 53-31 last 4 years. Result: Pending

Tampa Bay Devil Rays +160 over St. Louis Cardinals (1.5 Units) MLB GOW Not a popular pick going against the Cardinals and backing a Devil Rays team that has a negative stigma. This is exactly why there is value in this play. The Devil Rays are an above 500 home team. Since this is the first game of an interleague match the spread should be a bit smaller. What improves is that we see the Cardinals struggling just a little bit. They are only averaging 3 runs over their past 5 games and are coming into this game off a series loss. The D-Rays are coming into the series off a series win. Result: Pending

Visit EasyBaseballBetting.com for explanations and unit amounts. This is the first time we have introduced run line betting to our arsenal but we have analyzed them for years and feel confident to start betting them. We are following a trend where in the first game of an interleague series, the home team has an advantage. In fact, League-wide American League homers have a 6% more likelihood to beat the run line than the National League when dealing with the first game of an Interleague series.

This season betting the Run Line for American League Homer favorites blindly in the first game of an interleague series has gone 10-4. You never want to bet anything blindly so you want to pick your spots. For example, if that National League team is coming off a series loss, then the betting system goes to 35-35 overall over the past 6 years. With runlines, we turn our favorites into hefty dogs so achieving 50% is good. We are picking 6 decent run lines today with even better probabilities of hitting than the 50%.

CLEVELAND -1.5 (142) NY YANKEES -1.5 (166) BOSTON -1.5 (116) TORONTO -130 CINCINNATI -115 TAMPA BAY 149 BALTIMORE -1.5 (100) TEXAS -1.5 (132) OAKLAND -1.5 (166)

 

 

June 17, 2005 Free Picks

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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