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6/23/05 Thursday's MLB Picks + Underdog GOY
Pretty decent yesterday going 2-1 and +1.40 units thanks to the
Dodgers finally pulling out a win. We are down approximately 10 units
the past 7 days and are hoping to see a turnaround real soon.
Atlanta Braves +130 over Florida Marlins (3.0 Units)
This is an incredibly easy play for me to make. The Braves have shut
down the Marlins two games in a row. The Braves bullpen is fresh so
the Braves have the advantage if this game is close. Second of all,
with the Marlins scoring 0 runs in their past two games, we do not see
them bouncing back so quickly especially not on the road where they
are a measly 13-19. I admit that I love going against the Braves but
only on the road where they hit below .220. At home, the Braves are a
different story hitting well and going 21-11. We understand Dontrelle
Willis is pitching but even if he pitches a gem, the Marlins bats have
been too quiet thus far.
Baltimore Orioles +145 over Toronto Blue Jays (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK
There are many reasons to support this play on the surface. The
Orioles are the better team. The Orioles have a great hitting lineup
that can score runs on anyone, including Halladay. We see them at +145
for two reasons, Halladay and the supposed home field advantage of the
Blue Jays. Read my article on Home Field advantage and you will see
that in Game 4 of any series, home field advantage deteriorates. That
adjustment by the oddsmakers is worth a play alone. Nevertheless, the
Orioles find themselves in a system of mine that has only had one
losing season over the past 6 years for underdogs of +135 including
7-4 +5.32 UNITS this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers +142 over San Diego Padres (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK
Same reason as the previous 3 games. Today's play is slightly better
with respect to value with the Dodgers finally starting to hit and
New York Yankees - Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK
I was wishy-washy with the Over in this game yesterday. I didn't play
it after seeing that the Yankees were 60% for the under after a home
game in which they scored greater than 14 runs. Anyways, with them
losing yesterday, expect their bats to liven up. History supports this
as we see the Yankees falling into a 42-26 system for the Over.
June 23, 2005 Free Picks