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6/23/05 Thursday's MLB Picks + Underdog GOY

Pretty decent yesterday going 2-1 and +1.40 units thanks to the Dodgers finally pulling out a win. We are down approximately 10 units the past 7 days and are hoping to see a turnaround real soon.

Atlanta Braves +130 over Florida Marlins (3.0 Units) This is an incredibly easy play for me to make. The Braves have shut down the Marlins two games in a row. The Braves bullpen is fresh so the Braves have the advantage if this game is close. Second of all, with the Marlins scoring 0 runs in their past two games, we do not see them bouncing back so quickly especially not on the road where they are a measly 13-19. I admit that I love going against the Braves but only on the road where they hit below .220. At home, the Braves are a different story hitting well and going 21-11. We understand Dontrelle Willis is pitching but even if he pitches a gem, the Marlins bats have been too quiet thus far. Result: Pending

Baltimore Orioles +145 over Toronto Blue Jays (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK There are many reasons to support this play on the surface. The Orioles are the better team. The Orioles have a great hitting lineup that can score runs on anyone, including Halladay. We see them at +145 for two reasons, Halladay and the supposed home field advantage of the Blue Jays. Read my article on Home Field advantage and you will see that in Game 4 of any series, home field advantage deteriorates. That adjustment by the oddsmakers is worth a play alone. Nevertheless, the Orioles find themselves in a system of mine that has only had one losing season over the past 6 years for underdogs of +135 including 7-4 +5.32 UNITS this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers +142 over San Diego Padres (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK Same reason as the previous 3 games. Today's play is slightly better with respect to value with the Dodgers finally starting to hit and gain confidence.

 

New York Yankees - Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over (1.0 Unit) FREE PICK I was wishy-washy with the Over in this game yesterday. I didn't play it after seeing that the Yankees were 60% for the under after a home game in which they scored greater than 14 runs. Anyways, with them losing yesterday, expect their bats to liven up. History supports this as we see the Yankees falling into a 42-26 system for the Over.

 

June 23, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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