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6/27/05 Monday's MLB Picks [Game of the Week Included]

**** Game of the Week **** Colorado Rockies -115 over Houston Astros [1.00 units] You have got to be kidding me, Rockies are -115? Not only are the Rockies a respectable 20-17 at home, but the Astros are a horrible 9-27 on the road. The Rockies are coming off a home sweep smacking in 25 runs in those 3 games. The Rockies are always a decent bet at home but what people don't notice is how they do against the Lefties at home. They have gone 9-3 this year, 24-10 the past 2 seasons. So we like the Rockies bats today. We also disfavor the Astros as they are travelling from home to a road game, coming off a series loss. The fact that they are not good on the road helps us. Do I even have to mention that Wandy Rodriguez has a 7.00+ ERA???

Colorado Rockies RUNLINE +156 over Houston Astros [1.00 units] I guess this means we are putting 2 units on the Rockies. As I said, the Rockies are 12-7 against the run line as a favorite at home against lefties the past two years, 5-2 this year. With the +156, it is GREAT VALUE.

Colorado Rockies and the Houston Astros OVER 13 [1.00 units] As you can see, we like the Rockies today but we also do not want to discount the Astros bats as they have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. And they have been averaging 4.9 runs on the road versus Righties the past 2 seasons. This is in contrast to them only averaging 3.0 runs on the road versus Lefties during the same span. We see them scoring about 5 runs and our computer model projects the Rockies winning by an average of 3.3 runs. This means the game will likely go over, right? This is also a great buffer because if we lose the Rockies Run Line or even Money Line, then it would have to be because the Astros scored plenty of runs making this game go easily OVER.

We are currently analyzing the American League. Additional Email to come if we find anything.

Boston Redsox - Cleveland Indians Over 9.5 (1.50 Units) The Red Sox are playing well, reeling off 7 consecutive win, 6 of them on the road. They will be bringing in a lot of confidence into tonight's home game. They have a sense of urgency, determination, drive that they had when they won the World Series last year. They will win this AL East. Anyways, on top of their great offensive numbers as of late, we project the Red Sox to get 7-8 runs here. The Red Sox average 6 runs per game versus Righties this and last year. 6.5 runs versus Righties at home. Remember how the first game of the series benefits the home teams? Well, their average balloons up to 7.5 runs per game in the first game of a home series. The Indians are pretty decent themselves on the road against righties. They average 5 runs in that spot. A 7-5 score is projected.

Boston Redsox -1.5 (+121) RUNLINE over Colorado Rockies (1.00 Units) Read the reasoning for the over. We see the Red Sox winning today. We see a system for the Run Line that is 50% and with the +121, we like the play. On top of that, remember the Red Sox are playing well. Also, if they lose this runline, it would probably because of the Indians scoring plenty of runs, making our over bet win easily.

Texas Rangers +130 over Los Angeles Angels (1.00 Units) The Texas Rangers have a potent offense. Are coming home off a road series win. We like them in today's spot against Bartolo Colon because the Rangers play well at home against Righties. In fact, as a home dog against a division rival going against a righty was 9-3 Last Year. 19-10 overall this and last year as a home dog versus a righty.

 

* Rockies Over 13 -110 * Rockies -1.5 Runline +156 * Rockies ML -115 * Red Sox -1.5 Runline +121 * Red Sox Over 9.5 -110 * Rangers ML +130

 

June 27, 2005 Free Picks

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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