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Wednesday's MLB Picks (Premium: 2, Free: 9) Inbox Great day yesterday going 4-0 featuring +155 Athletics Run Line, the Braves +186 and of course my 1.5 unit play on the Orioles +110. The Rockies over, and the Orioles ML were lucky but hey we have had the same things going against us recently.

Anyways, it does not make up for going 1-11 the three days before but because our plays pay out better than even money, we do not even have to reach 50% to be profitable.

Today, I have 11 picks. This is the most picks I have ever had in a single day. We have recently been including run lines, and over/unders as part of our arsenal and even though doing that decreases our expected value per play, we believe we increase our total profit per season.

 

TODAY'S PICKS Chicago Whitesox +121 over Detroit Tigers (2.0 Units) 2.0 unit play here. The Whitesox are only underdogs because they are starting an unknown pitcher today. The Whitesox have been rather quiet offensively and there is some reason to believe that they might pick up today against a righty.

Baltimore Orioles +110 over New York Yankees (1.5 units) We got them as dogs yesterday with 1.5 units and we are getting them as dogs again today. They are a decent team and they should be favorite today. They have not lost a game this season as a home dog versus a right hander including yesterday.

Atlanta Braves +110 over Florida Marlins (1.0 units) Same reason as yesterday.

Boston Redsox -1.5 RUNLINE +115 over Cleveland Indians (1.0 Units) I was so about to take the Red Sox yesterday. The over too. The Red Sox are strong at home off a loss but what my colleagues found was that they are not so great against Lefties. Yesterday, they did struggle early on but came up late. They should have won, it is too bad that they did not. Anyways, going against Cliff Lee who has pitched decent did not appeal to us. Today it does! Simple system: The Red Sox are 22-12 against the runline against Righties at home if coming off a loss over the past 2 years. 6-2 this season. Should I mention it improves to 8-2 for the runline if coming off 2 or more losses?

Boston Redsox - Cleveland Indians OVER 10 (1.0 Units) Read above explanation. We cannot discount the Indians potent offense, therefore taking the over as well.

Texas Rangers +115 over Anaheim Angels (1.0 Units) We are taking a 19-11 system for the Rangers going against division rivals as an underdog. It was 19-10 and lost on Monday. We are taking them again. We agree that John Lackey is pitching well.

Minnesota Twins - Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 (1.0 Units) The Twins could single handedly topple this over as they average 5.7 runs at home versus right handers. So many scores last night, the bullpens are tweaked and tired. We can also expect to see the Royals score a few runs as they average 5 runs on the road versus righties versus only 4 versus lefties on the road.

Philadelphia Phillies ML -110 over New York Mets (0.75 Units) Philadelphia Phillies RUNLINE -1.5 over New York Mets (0.5 Units) We are merging these two plays together. When road teams win, they beat the runline 80% of the time. Next thing to notice here is that Ishii is pitching. He gives up a lot of homeruns. Second, the Phillies average 7 runs per game on the road versus lefties. The Mets only average 4.2 runs per game at home versus righties.

Philadelphia Phillies - New York Mets OVER 9 (1.0 Units) Only 9? We are projecting a 11-12 run game here. The Mets have been scoring 4 or more runs in their last 8 games. The Phillies offense has been struggling but they have scored 26 runs in their last 3 games opposing a lefty starter. Over 9 seems a little too easy. I am expecting this to get to 9.5.

San Francisco Giants +183 over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) It is hard to make a strong case for a +183 team saying that it WILL win. I felt pretty good about the Braves yesterday but not necessarily today for these Giants. If you notice though, at +183, you would only have to win 35% of the time to break even. We feel the Giants have a better probabiliity of winning. We are banking on a simple system that has earned 21 units over the past 6 years. Going for +150 dogs or higher against division rivals coming off a game in which they scored greater than 10 runs. The past two years, this system has not done well going only 11-20 but still +1.0 unit.

Toronto Blue Jays -110 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units) We like the Blue Jays as we are expecting to hit well against the Devil Rays. It is about time someone in this series should score 5 or more runs.

 

June 29, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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