NEW: Follow us on Twitter!
Wednesday's MLB Picks (Premium: 2, Free: 9) Inbox
Great day yesterday going 4-0 featuring +155 Athletics Run Line, the
Braves +186 and of course my 1.5 unit play on the Orioles +110. The
Rockies over, and the Orioles ML were lucky but hey we have had the
same things going against us recently.
Anyways, it does not make up for going 1-11 the three days before but
because our plays pay out better than even money, we do not even have
to reach 50% to be profitable.
Today, I have 11 picks. This is the most picks I have ever had in a
single day. We have recently been including run lines, and over/unders
as part of our arsenal and even though doing that decreases our
expected value per play, we believe we increase our total profit per
Chicago Whitesox +121 over Detroit Tigers (2.0 Units)
2.0 unit play here. The Whitesox are only underdogs because they are
starting an unknown pitcher today. The Whitesox have been rather quiet
offensively and there is some reason to believe that they might pick
up today against a righty.
Baltimore Orioles +110 over New York Yankees (1.5 units)
We got them as dogs yesterday with 1.5 units and we are getting them
as dogs again today. They are a decent team and they should be
favorite today. They have not lost a game this season as a home dog
versus a right hander including yesterday.
Atlanta Braves +110 over Florida Marlins (1.0 units)
Same reason as yesterday.
Boston Redsox -1.5 RUNLINE +115 over Cleveland Indians (1.0 Units)
I was so about to take the Red Sox yesterday. The over too. The Red
Sox are strong at home off a loss but what my colleagues found was
that they are not so great against Lefties. Yesterday, they did
struggle early on but came up late. They should have won, it is too
bad that they did not. Anyways, going against Cliff Lee who has
pitched decent did not appeal to us. Today it does! Simple system: The
Red Sox are 22-12 against the runline against Righties at home if
coming off a loss over the past 2 years. 6-2 this season. Should I
mention it improves to 8-2 for the runline if coming off 2 or more
Boston Redsox - Cleveland Indians OVER 10 (1.0 Units)
Read above explanation. We cannot discount the Indians potent offense,
therefore taking the over as well.
Texas Rangers +115 over Anaheim Angels (1.0 Units)
We are taking a 19-11 system for the Rangers going against division
rivals as an underdog. It was 19-10 and lost on Monday. We are taking
them again. We agree that John Lackey is pitching well.
Minnesota Twins - Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 (1.0 Units)
The Twins could single handedly topple this over as they average 5.7
runs at home versus right handers. So many scores last night, the
bullpens are tweaked and tired. We can also expect to see the Royals
score a few runs as they average 5 runs on the road versus righties
versus only 4 versus lefties on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies ML -110 over New York Mets (0.75 Units)
Philadelphia Phillies RUNLINE -1.5 over New York Mets (0.5 Units)
We are merging these two plays together. When road teams win, they
beat the runline 80% of the time. Next thing to notice here is that
Ishii is pitching. He gives up a lot of homeruns. Second, the Phillies
average 7 runs per game on the road versus lefties. The Mets only
average 4.2 runs per game at home versus righties.
Philadelphia Phillies - New York Mets OVER 9 (1.0 Units)
Only 9? We are projecting a 11-12 run game here. The Mets have been
scoring 4 or more runs in their last 8 games. The Phillies offense has
been struggling but they have scored 26 runs in their last 3 games
opposing a lefty starter. Over 9 seems a little too easy. I am
expecting this to get to 9.5.
San Francisco Giants +183 over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units)
It is hard to make a strong case for a +183 team saying that it WILL
win. I felt pretty good about the Braves yesterday but not necessarily
today for these Giants. If you notice though, at +183, you would only
have to win 35% of the time to break even. We feel the Giants have a
better probabiliity of winning. We are banking on a simple system that
has earned 21 units over the past 6 years. Going for +150 dogs or
higher against division rivals coming off a game in which they scored
greater than 10 runs. The past two years, this system has not done
well going only 11-20 but still +1.0 unit.
Toronto Blue Jays -110 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units)
We like the Blue Jays as we are expecting to hit well against the
Devil Rays. It is about time someone in this series should score 5 or
June 29, 2005 Free Picks