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10/7/2005 Friday's MLB Picks (2)
We mentioned earlier that home teams oddly play extremely well in Game 2 of the First round. They went 4-0 over the past 2 days. Falling into the betting system that the Angels from two days ago, we saw the Braves smash all over the Astros and Clemens.
Anyways, we are going to see a home field advantage that deteriorates as the playoffs progress. Something worthy to notice is that American League road teams in the playoffs win at a 48% clip (11-9 dating back to last year) while their National League road counterparts only win 40% of the time (5-17 dating back to last year). With the pitcher batting #9 in the NL, the home field advantage is stronger. We see two big AL underdogs today on the road and we will back both of them.
Los Angeles Angels +220 over New York Yankees (1.0 Units)
This is a long term value play. The Angels should be something like +150 in a game like this. I understand that Randy Johnson is 11-2 at home this season but dating back to 1995, he is 0-7 in the League Divisional Series. He is 5-0 otherwise. His struggles in the League Divisional Series should not be overlooked because these Angels have an extreme amount of confidence against the Yankees.
Chicago White Sox +150 over Boston Redsox (1.0 Units)
Interesting move by the White Sox because they should be starting John Garland but they are saving him and putting in Garcia. That is okay because Garcia is 10-3 on the road this year with a 3.40 road ERA. The Red Sox are off a loss and are playing at home and deserve some interest but this is again a long term value play. The White Sox should still be +120. The Red Sox are 63-24 +26 units at home off a loss over the past 3 seasons. This coupled with the fact that we have seen home teams go 6-2 so far in the playoffs has produced a totally out of whack line here. But in those 97 games, the Red Sox are only 12-10 +0.5 units if their opponent's road win percentage is greater than 55%. The White Sox are a great road team so no reason to be scared of the Red Sox bounce back strength.
October 07, 2005 Free Picks