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10/9/2005 Sunday's MLB Picks
We won our favorite and lost our dog yesterday for a push.

Los Angeles Angels +195 over New York Yankees (1.5 Units)
Same pitchers as yesterday but we changed this play to a 1.5 unit play based on the value we are getting at +195. Actually, the probability of these Angels winning actually decreased because of the postponement. We saw a Yankees team that gave up late in Game 3 when their crowd left early. As I mentioned yesterday, I would expect these Angels to be around +120.

Houston Astros +110 over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units)
We are backing these Astros to close it out at home. The Astros have won 7 of Backe's last 9 starts. They lost game 4 last season to these Braves but the Braves are clearly not as good as they were last year. Their bullpen is shoddy and with Tim Hudson the likely starter on 3 days rest, there will be trouble if he gets battered around early. We know that these Braves have trouble scoring on the road so we project a decent game by Backe and some likely hitting for these Astros. Name recognition of Hudson give us a decent spread here but on 3 days rest he is only going to be as good as a Backe-type anyways. Great value getting these Astros at home as a dog in a game they look likely to win.

 

October 09, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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