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10/9/2005 Sunday's MLB Picks
We won our favorite and lost our dog yesterday for a push.

Los Angeles Angels +195 over New York Yankees (1.5 Units)
Same pitchers as yesterday but we changed this play to a 1.5 unit play based on the value we are getting at +195. Actually, the probability of these Angels winning actually decreased because of the postponement. We saw a Yankees team that gave up late in Game 3 when their crowd left early. As I mentioned yesterday, I would expect these Angels to be around +120.

Houston Astros +110 over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units)
We are backing these Astros to close it out at home. The Astros have won 7 of Backe's last 9 starts. They lost game 4 last season to these Braves but the Braves are clearly not as good as they were last year. Their bullpen is shoddy and with Tim Hudson the likely starter on 3 days rest, there will be trouble if he gets battered around early. We know that these Braves have trouble scoring on the road so we project a decent game by Backe and some likely hitting for these Astros. Name recognition of Hudson give us a decent spread here but on 3 days rest he is only going to be as good as a Backe-type anyways. Great value getting these Astros at home as a dog in a game they look likely to win.

 

October 09, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/13/11

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Diamondbacks 94-68 +27.70
Brewers 96-66 +20.77
Tigers 95-67 +19.91
Phillies 102-60 +14.30
Rangers 96-66 +13.34
Full Table >>
Home
Brewers 57-24 +25.23
Diamondbacks 51-30 +13.96
Rangers 52-29 +7.69
Tigers 50-31 +7.61
Yankees 52-29 +7.38
Full Table >>
Road
Mets 43-38 +17.61
Diamondbacks 43-38 +13.74
Tigers 45-36 +12.30
Cardinals 45-36 +10.67
White Sox 43-38 +10.61
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Diamondbacks 70-44 +29.54
Brewers 78-48 +23.42
Rangers 70-45 +13.60
Tigers 65-47 +12.66
Cardinals 71-52 +8.41
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
D'rays 31-19 +14.26
Yankees 34-17 +12.92
Phillies 30-13 +9.49
Tigers 30-20 +7.25
Giants 26-18 +6.32
Full Table >>

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