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10/11/2005 Tuesday's MLB Pick
Nice little run we are having for the MLB lately. We ended the season with two wins by these White Sox as huge dogs to end the season against the Indians and then again backed them in the playoffs. We got some great large underdog wins from these Angels against the Yankees. Now, we see them paired off and our streak of backing both of them has to end at some point unless we pass on every ALCS game.
Point #1: Travel
The White Sox are on an 8 game winning streak. This is huge. You always want to back teams on winning streaks but they are in an abnormal situation. First of all, their last win was on the road. Teams off a 4+ game winning streak at home are 26-12 +12.5 units if off of a home game. Off of a road game they are 9-10. This just shows that travelling can affect momentum.
Point #2: Long Layoff
That is probably pointless to care about because of the long layoff these White Sox have had. Their last game was on the 7th of October. This is unprecedented to have a team with such a long layoff to go up against a team with no rest. We will see how the Angels react but all signs point to going against the White Sox today. I massaged several different scenarios and saw that teams with a long layoff in the American League will struggle their first game back.
Point #3: On Zero Days Rest
I would expect to see the same go-against scenario working against these Angels because they are playing on zero days rest and have to travel. This is not basketball where you lose points by being on zero days rest because the players are not running for 30-50 minutes a game. Anyways, I checked it out anyways to see how teams did in similar scenarios. I was surprised to see that American League road teams on zero days rest coming off of a home win are actually 140-130 +36 units over the past 6 years. It has never had a losing season in that span. Of course, the 7th year, it went 18-28 -9 units. This system has limitations when our opponent is not also playing on zero days rest and/or is coming off of a win. Therefore, we do not predict these Angels to be as strong of a winner as we could but a lot is going to be said of these Angels lack of rest, too much travel, etc that we are going to see a very tasty spread here.
Point #4: Game 1 Records
Aside from their blowout 14-2 win, the White Sox are only averaging 4 points per game in their last 7 games. This is not good for an American League team and the long layoff will take their bats out of this game. The White Sox are only 14-12 in Game 1 at home this season while being 34-22 every other game at home. The Angels, on the other hand, strike early as they are 19-8 on the road during game 1 as opposed to being exactly .500 every other game.
Contrary Point #5: Pitchers
Contreras has a lifetime 6.75 ERA against the Angels in three starts but the White Sox are 14-2 in Contreras' last 16 starts. Byrd's only start today against the White Sox has been pretty bad and he is on only 3 days rest. This is a big issue too.
A lot of signs point to this game being close to 50/50 with a slight home field advantage going to the White Sox but we will see the Angels as nice tasty dogs. Value.
Los Angeles Angels +180 over Chicago White Sox (1.5 Units)
The Analysis was sent out yesterday. In case it was confusing as to who I chose, my pick was for the Angels. I believe this is a close 50/50 game with the edge in pitching and home field advantage to the White Sox. Not good enough to justify them at -200 though. Therefore the pick is the Angels and it was unclear in my earlier email because the spread was not out yet.
Los Angeles Angels - Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 -105 (0.5 Units)
SMALL PLAY. Half your regular unit amount. If you flat bet all plays as I recommend then this would be half of that. The White Sox might simply unload on Byrd today on short rest. I did not care too much for the Angels celebrating with champagne and then having to play today so there may be costly errors too.
My Wednesday's analysis will come out shortly but I am likely not going to have a pick for Game 1 in Houston-St. Louis.
October 11, 2005 Free Picks