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10/13/2005 Thursday's MLB Picks
The Angels got robbed but we made out pretty well getting both of our plays. We have been on a pretty strong roll in these playoffs.

NO PLAY = Astros @ Cardinals
When a team is good against a pitcher and has the proper motivation, they can be dominant. The Cardinals are 65-27 +32 units versus righties off a loss L2 Seasons. Off a win this season against right handers, only 36-33 for -12 units against right handers. They won against the Astros in Game 1 and I do not see any obvious advantage for these Cardinals. As I mentioned in my analysis yesterday regarding the home field advantage of home teams in division rivalry games, I do not see any advantage for the Astros either. There will be no play Thursday.

I will email you later if I find evidence otherwise.

Thursday's MLB Picks ** Addendum **
I said I would have no play for the Astros-Cardinals game unless I found evidence to support a play on either side. It took us a while because we were analyzing the NFL matchups but we decided on a play today.

St. Louis Cardinals -145 over Houston Astros (1.5 Units)
Home playoff teams against division rivals are now 23-10 after the Cardinals win in Game 1. The home team in this division rivalry is 8-0 dating back to last year.

The Cardinals fall into two playoffs betting systems of mine. The first is 19-3 over the past 7 years that involve betting on home favorites that have a home win percentage greater than 60% that are coming off a home win in the series. This has applied to the Cardinals in the regular season too. Dating back to last year, the Cardinals are 31-9 (+16 units) in their second home game of a series if they are off a win in Game 1. It improves to 25-6 (+15 units) if facing a right handed pitcher. Gets to an even better 22-4 mark if they scored 5 or more runs in Game 1. The Cardinals are an interesting bunch to analyze. At home in games 1 and 2 of any home series, they are 82-31 (+33 units) the past 2 years. In games 3 and 4 of any home series, they are 28-27 (-18 units). They come into a series pumped up but slowly die down and that was exactly the reason we did not expect them to be rusty yesterday like we expected from the White Sox. It should also be a good reason not to expect them to let down in Game 2.

The second system involves going against teams facing a lefty whose win percentage against lefties is below 55% if they are coming off a loss against a righty. It makes sense to go against a team that struggles against lefties when they just came off a loss against a righty. If they are coming off a game versus a lefty then the team starts to get used to and familiar with lefties. We do not want that. The Astros are going to face lefty Mark Mulder. Mark has a lot of playoffs experience with the Athletics. His teams have always failed to get past the first round so you can expect him to get jazzed about this start tonight in the Championship Series. The Astros are batting .229 against lefties on the road. They are 8-17 in those games. Don't let all of that deceive you though because it is very misleading. The Astros opened up the season 0-11 on the road versus lefties (before game #48). Remember they had that horrible 15-30 start. Since that point (game 48 and above) they have gone 8-6 on the road versus lefties.

Anyways, a team's struggles against pitching always gets amplified in the post season. We saw that happen with the Angels and White Sox in Game 2 who are both not very good against lefties.

The last positive thing to note here is the favorable odds. We saw these Cardinals at -170 in game 1 and now get to have them at a nice -145 ish price. Value with the home favorite again today.