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10/15/2005 2 Saturday's MLB Picks extends 11-4 playoffs
The White Sox came through as we expected improving our playoffs run to 11-4 and our ALCS mark to 3-0. I do not have a good feeling on the NLCS game either way today so I am going to pass on it but I have a play on the White Sox - Angels game.

Los Angeles Angels -128 over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units)
I am surprised that the Angels are such favorites in this game with Ervin on the mound. Vegas is probably anticipating heavy Angels action but I like the Angels even at this inflated number. The White Sox as we expected won yesterday by coming out blazing for 3 runs in the first inning. They had to show the world that they deserved to win despite controversial umpire calls in their favour. Their first inning spark was the difference. With the monkeys off their backs, the monkey is now on these Angels backs and they are relying on the rookie Santana AGAIN. He bailed them out to win the ALDS and they are going to need a superb effort from him today to even up the series. It is Rally Monkey time.

Ervin is an ace at home, where he stands at 9-3 with an ERA a tad over 3.00. The Angels have won his last 4 regular season starts plus his playoffs appearance for 5 consecutive wins. His only start in his career against the White Sox was a complete game 5-hit shutout so there is no reason to be afraid of betting on Ervin. Betting against Freddy is the only real thing to worry about.

I am utilizing a MLB Playoffs betting system that involves playing on home teams in the playoffs off a loss by more than 1 run that has gone 2-0 this season and 16-5 over the past 7 seasons. These Angels are 7-1 during the season in their second game at home if they are off a loss in the first. They are a perfect 6-0 if facing their bread-and-butter RIGHTIES. I understand Freddy Garcia is great on the road with an 11-3 mark, we backed him to win the improbable game at Fenway but the Angels average 5.5 runs per game against righties in that situation.

These Angels are 13-5 (+5 units) off a loss at home as a favorite against a non-division rival. A great playoffs systems combined with in-season angles provide us with our play on these Angels today.

We are all waiting for Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero to have a break out game. I know that Garret had a 2 run shot in this postseason but both hitters are hitting below .100 this postseason. Not going to get the job done.

Los Angeles Angels - Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 (1.0 Units)
Ervin is damn good at home and Freddy is damn good on the road. Angels stadium is also a stadium that is very conducive to unders. The unders in this series is already 3-0. If Freddy gets in any kind of trouble, the White Sox have the most rested bullpen ever to shut down the Angels. Their last two games were Complete Game gems with no use of the bullpen. Expect a low scoring small ball type of game.

 

October 15, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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