10/26/2005 Wednesday's MLB Pick
Houston Astros +123 over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units)

We do not see clear-cut advantages for any particular team Wednesday. Actually, we like both teams. The Astros are in an obvious must-win in front of their home fans. Getting it to a game 5 means putting it to the Rocket's hands which is a very similar to the situation with the Red Sox needing a win to get it to Schilling last year when they came back from 3-0 on the Yankees. But we love betting on Freddy Garcia on the road as he is insane. The White Sox are riding momentum and are probably going to be undervalued on the road.

We are going to listen to some of the footage of the Astros players and see where their minds, hearts, mouths are. Have they surrendered or are they poised for a win? That will need to be measured and compared to what the spread becomes. I do know that they rolled over dead in the Top of the 14th as they were giving up those runs.

If no play is issued by 3PM EST Wednesday then there will be no play for Game #4.

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We have been creaming the books by backing these White Sox dating back to their sweep against the Indians. We take a change of pace on Wednesday and go against them. We took the Red Sox in every game in last year's World Series but none of the games were close. When game 4 popped up, the Cardinals were so demoralized that they really had no choice but to lose. These Astros are different as they have been competing in every game. The series could easily have been 2-1 Astros. I like the Astros to win this game at about 50% because they do have a home field advantage, motivation. This is a let down spot for the White Sox as they may become complacent. When up 3-0 last year, the Red Sox would not let up because they had won their previous series after being down 3-0. They understood the value of closing it out when you can. I am not so sure these White Sox will be able to handle that. You are also dealing with Brandon Backe whose home ERA is about 1.5 points lower than his overall ERA. That means he is horrible on the road but respectable at home. They need a huge game from him today and he might surprise a couple of people. The only thing that really worries me is that Backe has a tendency to give up the long ball too frequently. But with the White Sox likely to play small ball to close it out, they may hurt themselves by not trying to take this dude deep every chance they get with runners on base.