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9/16/2005 Friday's MLB Picks (12)
I agree there is something wrong when out of 16 games, you pick 12. I did not believe it at first but the money line spreads have been really freaky today. A lot of our system have as one of their requirements that it be the first game of a series. Fridays are always the first game of most series'. We went a 2 month span where we lost only 1 friday. Unfortunately, recently we went 1-5 last Friday and 0-6 not too long ago. I guess our Game 1 success stopped being as lucrative but we hope today changes all of that with our huge card. I guess I put my reputation on the line if this does not do well but I am playing each of the games myself.
Cincinnati Reds +110 over Pittsburgh Pirates GAME 1 (1.5 Units)
This spread will grow based on the fact that the Pirates have Zach Duke on the hill. He has been fantastic this season but the Reds are Red hot and hit lefties particularly well. This is a division rivalry matchup where the spread always favors the underdog. Anyways, we also see a Pirates team that is horrible at home and horrible against its own division! They are only about 30% against the NL Central. The Reds snatch up the early Game 1.
Atlanta Braves +110 over New York Mets (1.0 Units)
This spread will also grow by the end of the day as we will see the public jump over a small -120 Pedro Martinez. The Mets are ridiculous right now at 1-9 L10 and the Braves are 6-4 L10. The Braves just avoided a 4 game road sweep yesterday. Going for division rival underdogs in game 1 of a series that are playing a team with fewer than 3 wins L10 is +24 units with no losing seasons the past 7 years. That is not even the betting system we used to back them but because the Braves are horrible on the road versus righties. Pedro is a damn good one. This is a 1.0 Unit play.
Florida Marlins +115 over Philadelphia Phillies (2.0 Units)
First, the Marlins are 41-31 at home and the Phillies are 33-36 on the road. Advantage Marlins. Second, John Lieber has a higher ERA than Moehler, advantage Marlins. Third, the Phillies are 2-7 in Lieber's L9 road starts. Lieber is totally getting all the recognition here because of the fact that he started the season 4-0 and that has kind of been pervasive in the thoughts of bettors. He is totally overvalued here. He beat the Marlins 11-1 on September 11, 2005. The Marlins have revenge, you better believe they will come banging especially since his previous two outings against them, he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings apiece. Moehler has not had much success against the Phillies but those bad outings have come on the road just as Lieber's good outings against Florida has come at home. Both of these teams are coming into this series with losses and identical records. All this coupled with a decent baseball betting system and we have a good play as we believe it is the Marlins that should be -120.
Milwaukee Brewers +170 over Houston Astros (1.0 Units)
The Astros are coming alive with two wins after the news of Roger Clemens' mother. The Brewers on the other hand are a force to be reckoned with, as they have won 7 of their past 10. They are starting to hit. We took them 3 consecutive games and saw them go 2-1. With just a smudge more hitting, they could have been 3-0. Anyways, they come into this series strong.
The Astros just completed a series win over the Florida Marlins and will either 1) be likely to overlook the Brewers in game 1 and 2) be off their emotional high of the Clemens situation. Rick Helling pitched 7 innings of shutout ball against the Astros in his last performance and could easily do similar things with the fact that we are predicting the Astros to lose some luster. Regardless, these Brewers should not be +170. They probably should be +140 based on Oswalt pitching and the home/away dichotomy. Remember, these Brewers are divisional rivals.
Colorado Rockies +110 over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units)
The Diamondbacks are really really slumping offensively. We went 2-1 going against them the past 3 days and heck, lets go against them today. They should never be a favorite even at home because they are a lousy 30-42 at home. They play better on the road. Anyways, with the Diamondbacks scoring 2 or fewer runs the past 4 games and a Zach Day looking to get back in form, we might have a Rockies upset right here. Nevertheless, +110 on a divisional rival is always a decent bet when you would say both teams are equal. The Rockies are coming on offensively too.
Washington Nationals +145 over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units)
Jake Peavy is 7-2 at home this season, thus the heavy chalk. But we get to bet on a Nationals team off of 3 consecutive wins and some good offensive performances. The Padres, on the other hand, have been stinking it up against the Giants. They avoided a sweep the other day. Anyways, these Nationals are very much in this Wild Card race, are 14-10 against the NL West, are not horrible on the road. With a very good pitcher in John Patterson on the mound, +145 is a gift.
Boston Redsox -160 over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units)
The Red Sox are 12-3 at home off a home loss versus the same team it is facing. Past 3 seasons are 42-11. They were also something like 29-9 at home versus non-divisional rivals as a favorite. The Athletics beat the Indians in Game 1 and went on to lose the next 2. We see these Red Sox bats pick up and smack Lefty Kennedy around. The Red Sox are 7-2 at home versus lefties against a non-divisional rival this season. Divisional rivals do not get the chance to do the strong scouting reports like divisional rivals and would therefore benefit the Red Sox bats.
Toronto Blue Jays +158 over New York Yankees (1.0 Units)
Randy Johnson is here and is -180 on the road. Wouldn't it be so fitting for the Yankees seeing themselves only 2 back with Randy Johnson on the mound and lose to fall 3 games back (we say the Red Sox win). It probably will happen as the Yankees are only 500 against division rivals and the Big Unit. The Yankees are 4-1 with the Big Unit going up against the Red Sox but the Unit sucks on the road. He has a bloated 4.82 road ERA. This is also a division rivalry game and we love getting the home team at +158. His last outing was a 1 hitter against the Red Sox but he always puts his best effort versus them. His last outing at Toronto, he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings pitched. I would expect something similar to that. At least the Blue Jays pitcher has a home ERA of 3.99 which beats RJs road ERA by almost a full run. Take the value at +158.
Baltimore Orioles -125 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (2.0 Units)
This is a small juice play against the Devil Rays. The smallest you may ever see. The Devil Rays have lit it up the second half of baseball BUT they still are a horrendous road team. We get the D'rays on the road. The Orioles have really stunk it up after such a great start to the season but we must say the Devil Rays are starting to go on a slide. They have lost 3 straight and have a 22-50 road record. The Devil Rays are 7-16 in road game 1's which is roughly the same as their overall road record. At least they are consistent!
Texas Rangers +132 over Seattle Mariners (1.5 Units)
Too much respect for that Felix kid in Seattle. He is a great pitcher but we must say, getting the home team at +132 against a division rival is like money. The Mariners have been playing well and a lot of why we went for them in Game 1 was for that very same reason. It seems like every time we go for the Rangers, they find a way to screw us but here I feel their bats might come alive and put Felix in his place. Anyways, despite him being good, he is still only 3-3. We are utilizing a system for home dogs against division rivals that are facing right handed pitching if they are positive units on the season versus righties.
Minnesota Twins +105 over Chicago White Sox (1.5 Units)
Taking the Twins for the very same reason we went for the Royals three days ago. We want to bet against these White Sox. I was right about the Royals at home but unfortunately we took them in Game 1 to see them lose and we did not take them in games 2 and 3 where they lost. The Twins squeak out a victory here over John Garland and we predict the White Sox to continue their slump.
Los Angeles Angels -210 over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units)
Last minute play that I added. I am going to this game and we discussed this game extensively. The Angels have a lot of motivation for this game and this is why we don't mind taking them at -210. Anyways, they should win this game because the Tigers are a 27-37 road team while the Angels are a 41-31 home team. Also the Angels will be coming into this game knowing they are currently tied for the division lead. They know in their hearts they need to to start getting back to the winning track. They will also be extra motivated from the fact that they blew their chance to get Bartolo his 20th win. Does it hurt his Cy Young status? Anyways, we uncovered some great 16-1, 21-3 systems involving strong favorites off a loss as a strong favorite.
September 16, 2005 Free Picks