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9/18/05 Sunday's MLB Picks (5)
2-0 yesterday. 8-6 Last two days.

The Phillies win yesterday was so lucky. They hit Dontrelle Willis like I expected but not until the ninth inning and only really scored any runs because of poor fielding. If they fixed up their fielding, it would have been a shutout loss for us. Anyways, it takes us to our first pick.

Philadelphia Phillies +158 over Florida Marlins (1.5 Units)
Same exact system as yesterday that helped us win and I do not see a reason not to take it. Of course the pitching dynamics completely changed. We mentioned liking the fact the Dontrelle was pitching because he is lefty. The Phillies themselves had a righty. Now, both sides switched up and it is the Marlins turn to hit a lefty. Well, the Marlins are actually better vs. Lefties. The Marlins are 7-3L10 versus lefties scoring an average of 4.7 runs per game in those outings and only allowing an average of 3.2 runs per game. Eude Brito is also a new pitcher so his inexperience may or may not cost him. All this really proves is that this spread makes sense. It makes sense to for a team that hits lefties well like the Marlins to be -160 at home with a pitcher like Josh Beckett on the mound going up against an inexperienced lefty. I still say value the other way with the Phillies because you have to love the Phillies' offense. You also have to take into account the mental psychological edge the Phillies have over the Marlins after scoring 10 runs in the Top of the 9th yesterday.

Washington Nationals -105 over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units)
Walk off HR by the Padres capping their victory. Game tying HR in the bottom of the ninth to send it to extras. I don't expect the Padres bats to come alive today against Loaiza and I also don't expect Astacio to continue to pitch well.

New York Yankees -170 over Toronto Blue Jays (1.00 Units)
I am crazy to be taking this game with so much juice in a division rivalry game and it is the New York Yankees, a team you would never really get great value betting on. The Yankees are on a six game winning streak and are getting great pitching/hitting whenever one is needed. Yesterday, great pitching was needed. The night before great hitting. Several small sample size systems in our favor today. Road favorites off a 1-0 win are 14-7 +5 units. Home division rivals in Game 3 of a series if they lost their first two games by 1 run each is 6-14 last 7 years. There is also the momentum issue boding well for the Yankees. Also road teams getting a 3-game sweep after having already won Games 1 and 2 helps their cause. I was about to say that the Yankees suck versus lefties but I just checked and noticed that they have almost identical win percentages versus lefties and righties. It must have been some of their current winning streaks bringin up their percentages versus lefties from when I last checked. I think the fact that they got whooped by a lefty yesterday bodes well for them as they face a lefty again. Familiarity always helps. The last I checked, Sheffield was hitting 370 and Matsui 340 versus lefties. The real MVP of the Yankees is Giambi who got their only RBI last night and he will single-handedly keep A.Rod from winning it. We can always expect Jeter, A.Rod, and Giambi to play well, righty or lefty. With Sheffield and Matsui directly after them, they have the makings of a great inning if Ted Lilly struggles with the balls and strikes.

Baltimore Orioles -150 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units)
These guys blew it by losing 6-1 in game 1 of this series. They barely won yesterday. The D'Rays are 3-7 L10 and the Orioles are 6-4 L10. Momentum is on our side. Home field advantage is on our side. I also think that with the Orioles facing such a poor road division rival team that they will come to play today to try and win this series. I am expecting great things from their offense as a result.

Atlanta Braves -104 over New York Mets (1.0 Units)
I understand that this play might be late. 40 minutes until game time. I should have seen this earlier but sometimes I give the bookies far too much credit to make the good spread and they do not. I thought the Braves line should be -125 here. Glavine is by far the superior pitcher and he is at home so I can understand a -105 range spread but it is wrong. The Braves have always been historically great versus lefty pitching. They only had 1 losing season (units) versus lefties over the past 7 years. They are 21-12 this season. As a result they are 8-1 versus Glavine in 11 career starts. Glavine pitched a great game in his last outing versus the Braves but heck, the Braves will rock him tonight. They scored 7 runs yesterday so the offense is picking it up. They will continue on Glavine. Listed Pitcher: Glavine.

 

September 18, 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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