9/21/05 Wednesday's MLB Picks (1)
Just 1 pick for today.

Cincinnati Reds +125 over St. Louis Cardinals (1.5 Units)
We understand that the Cardinals are the best team in baseball and this is why you see them as -135 on the road. What I was surprised to realize was that the Cardinals are actually 4-13 in Jason Marquis' last 17 starts. In fact, 30% of the Cardinals' losses this season have come while he is on the mound. He gave up 10 Runs in 2.1 innings in his last start in Cincinnati. Cincinnati always plays the Cardinals tough. We were very tempted to take the Cardinals yesterday but had respect for the Reds at home against their rivals. What we also thought about was that the Cardinals had little to play for. They have not won a game since clinching their division. In fact, they probably will not even have to win any more games to end up with the best record in the National League. They know it and you will see them coasting along. The Reds, on the other hand, are playing hot baseball. We also see them banging against Right Handed pitching lately and that bodes well for their offense and bad for Jason Marquis. +125 is pure value here because from a realistic perspective this should probably be -110. Listed Pitcher: Jason Marquis.