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9/30/05 Friday's MLB Picks
Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (1.5 Units) SPREAD UNKNOWN
The Cleveland Indians were our Game of the Year yesterday and they did not dissapoint us with a 6-0 win. Their offense played well, and CC Sabathia pulled through as expected. We are backing these Indians again for psychological reasons. The White Sox clinched the division yesterday and have guaranteed themselves a slot for the playoffs. They should still be trying to win games so that they can wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs but if you saw how happy they were and opening up champagne bottles, you got to believe that they will not be into Game 1 of this series. They will be travelling from Detroit to Cleveland. They will be in a celebratory mood and their offense will likely struggle. With Buehrle on the mound, this helps the Indians because as we said they are 18-12 at home versus lefties. Only about 500 at home versus righties. This is a good spot for these Indians to get a win. The Spread is unknown but because of the respect for Buehrle, these Indians would either be dogs or small home favorites.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks +135 over San Francisco Giants (1.5 Units)
We feel that these Diamondbacks should be in the +105 range. There is value here. These Dbacks are playing great lately and have actually overtaken the Giants for second place in the weak NL West. These Giants are playing bad and will likely end the season in a lull after all the hype of them trying to overtake the Padres. Bonds mentioned that he will stop playing once the Giants are eliminated. They were eliminated and he probably won't play. If he becomes a non-factor then these Giants will really struggle.

Cincinnati Reds +160 over St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 Units)
These Reds are another team we are backing for value. As soon as the Cardinals clinched they went into a spiral of doom. In fact, they are 3-7 L10. They have Mark Mulder on the mound who will almost certainly be slated as their #2 starter in the playoffs. Trust that they will not overuse him. These Reds play the Cardinals tough and should be considered better than being +160. The Reds are also coming off a shut out loss and as we have been saying a lot, teams in that situation this season have been money.

Milwaukee Brewers -108 over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units)
We are going to back these Brewers again. This time they are going against the Pirates on the road. The Pirates are a wash this season, last place by over 30 games and they are actually coming off of a road sweep with a day off. Normally this would benefit them but not today. Being their last home series, they could already be in vacation mode. Of course, the Brewers have the better starting pitcher. Oliver Perez has a career 6.35 ERA in 3 starts versus the Brewers.

Washington Nationals +110 over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units)
After the Nationals scored over 10 runs in consecutive games, I cannot understand why they would be dogs at home. Obviously the extra public betting action that will come on the Phillies as a result of their fight for a playoffs spot is the reason for this. Livan Hernandez is on the mound for the Nationals and he lost his last 3 decisions but I think this is a chance for him to change that into positive as he has an extra day of rest than he is normally used to.

Oakland Athletics +110 over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units)
The bookies have been shading the Moyer lines, if they weren't the A's would be favorite. Whenever he pitches, we do our best to go against him. The Athletics love left handed pitching. So we expect Moyer to get rocked. He got rocked for 7 Earned Runs in his last start against Oakland. In fact, he has given up 15 earned runs in about 14 innings this season to the Athletics. The Athletics really have nothing to play for but pride but we do expect to see the A's bats come alive today after losing 3 of 4 to the Angels.

 

September 30 , 2005 Free Picks

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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