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Who do you think will win the World Series?
 Rangers   Yankees   Dodgers
 Devil Rays   Red Sox   Phillies
 Cubs  Angels  Giants

Road Favorites in Game 4 of a Series

Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball Betting

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 1797.000000-1484.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.937126. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

We saw in my Home Field Advantage articles that home field advantage in baseball decreases as the series progresses to the point that by game 4, it is as if the game was played on a neutral field. Since the Vegas odds have yet to take this into account, we can capitalize on a small system playing on road favorites.

Favorites are defined as a team that has the highest likelihood of winning and the odds express its probability of winning. We have the suspicion that road favorites should be bigger favorites when playing in the fourth game of a series by nature of the fact that Game 4 turns into a neutral field.

Give our team the motivation necessary to close out the series strong and we have a pretty good yet rare system. Losing game 3 should be sufficient motivation for our favorite in game 4. Our team is about 8 points undervalued and it is +15 units over the past 7 seasons.

If our team happened to lose by exactly one run, the system improves to 39-17 over the past 7 seasons, +17 units making our team undervalued by 30 points! Out of approximately 17,000 games this system has only been in effect 56 times which is about once every 300 games. So is it no wonder why a system like this can prove to be strong and profitable year after year?


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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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