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Betting Trends - Going Against Burned Out Baseball Teams

Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball Betting

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
20120-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20110-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20100-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20090-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20081-01.0000001.0000001.000000
20070-10.000000-1.000000-1.000000
20062-01.0000002.0000001.000000
20050-10.000000-1.000000-1.000000
20042-40.333333-2.250000-0.375000
20031-01.0000001.1500001.150000
20025-20.7142864.3000000.614286
20010-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20000-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
19990-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
Total11-80.5789474.2000000.221053

Total Scores: 90.000000-77.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.684211. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

During a long 162 game season, many teams will mentally take a day off even though they have a game scheduled. When a team plays a division rival, they expend a lot more effort and energy into the game that they normally would not.

The type of games that require the least effort and energy are Interleague games. If we pit two teams together, one coming off a division rivalry series and another off an Interleague game, we undoubtedly see an advantage for the team coming off an Interleague game.

The propensity to mentally take a day off in this situation increases if they are coming off of a win. Adding that constraint to the trend, we see our system go 11-4, +7 units.

If the current game being played is a division rivalry game, we do not expect any letdowns or "mental days off". We were right, 6 of those 15 games were division rivalry matchups and the result was an even 3-3.

Thus, taking teams off an interleague game going against a non-divisional opponent off of a win in a division rivalry series is 8-1. The opponent will likely take the day off mentally because they came off a division rivalry series where they spent a lot of effort, they are coming off a win, and because their current game is a less meaningful non-division rivalry game.




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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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