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Who do you think will win the World Series?
 Rangers   Yankees   Dodgers
 Devil Rays   Red Sox   Phillies
 Cubs  Angels  Giants

Road Dogs Versus Slumping Home Teams

Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball Betting

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 362.000000-370.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.084211. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

When a team's offense is struggling, you will lose will almost any pitcher. Just ask Roger Clemens in 2005 if he would have liked more run support. There's a very simple yet rare system in play going against sputtering offensive teams that gives our team about 20 points of value.

It is very easy for Vegas to adjust the odds against poor offensive clubs or even teams struggling offensively so league-wide such a general system will do nothing for you.

There is little familiarity between pitcher and hitter in Interleague games. This generally favors the pitcher evidenced by the fact that pitchers in their debut are actually pretty good. Struggling offensively and facing a pitcher they have never seen is a very strong go against angle.

To constitute a team struggling offensively, I constrain it to averaging 2 or fewer runs over its previous 4 games. I also look to bet only on road teams in this scenario.

Betting this system is 31-21 +13 units over the past 7 seasons. If our team is favorite, it improves to 14-5 and represents a team undervalued by 36.5 points.

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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