Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball Betting
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2012 | 7-8 | 0.466667 | 0.390000 | 0.026000 |
| 2011 | 6-11 | 0.352941 | -3.640000 | -0.214118 |
| 2010 | 0-4 | 0.000000 | -4.000000 | -1.000000 |
| 2009 | 4-3 | 0.571429 | 1.930000 | 0.275714 |
| 2008 | 3-2 | 0.600000 | 2.100000 | 0.420000 |
| 2007 | 3-4 | 0.428571 | -0.160000 | -0.022857 |
| 2006 | 3-3 | 0.500000 | 1.280000 | 0.213333 |
| 2005 | 3-3 | 0.500000 | 0.660000 | 0.110000 |
| 2004 | 2-4 | 0.333333 | -1.300000 | -0.216667 |
| 2003 | 3-2 | 0.600000 | 2.500000 | 0.500000 |
| 2002 | 2-2 | 0.500000 | 0.150000 | 0.037500 |
| 2001 | 3-4 | 0.428571 | -0.400000 | -0.057143 |
| 2000 | 2-0 | 1.000000 | 3.350000 | 1.675000 |
| 1999 | 2-2 | 0.500000 | 0.500000 | 0.125000 |
| Total | 43-52 | 0.452632 | 3.360000 | 0.035368 |
|---|
Total Scores: 362.000000-370.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.084211. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
When a team's offense is struggling, you will lose will almost any pitcher. Just ask Roger Clemens in 2005 if he would have liked more run support. There's a very simple yet rare system in play going against sputtering offensive teams that gives our team about 20 points of value.
It is very easy for Vegas to adjust the odds against poor offensive clubs or even teams struggling offensively so league-wide such a general system will do nothing for you.
There is little familiarity between pitcher and hitter in Interleague games. This generally favors the pitcher evidenced by the fact that pitchers in their debut are actually pretty good. Struggling offensively and facing a pitcher they have never seen is a very strong go against angle.
To constitute a team struggling offensively, I constrain it to averaging 2 or fewer runs over its previous 4 games. I also look to bet only on road teams in this scenario.
Betting this system is 31-21 +13 units over the past 7 seasons. If our team is favorite, it improves to 14-5 and represents a team undervalued by 36.5 points.
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