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Keeping the Intensity Alive in Baseball Games

Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 9975.000000-9525.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.219298. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

In baseball, we bet on teams that are streaking and go against them when they are slumping. As a variant of momentum, I wanted to see how intensity affected a baseball team's performance.

Intensity can be defined in many different ways. When a team is in a wild card chase, division penant run, etc.. a team is playing with intensity. We will postpone our analysis on this until later in the 2006 MLB season when the playoffs approach.

Another type of intensity for baseball standards would be playing a division rival. We have thoroughly analyzed division rivalry games but intensity exists equally on both sides of a divsion rivalry game. A disparity of intensity would only exist if a team is coming off a division rivalry game and its opponent is not.

In division rivalry games where a team had the intensity and its opponent did not, that team ended up 166-122 (58%) +51 units over the past 2 seasons. It was a historical +67 units over the past 7 seasons.

In 2005, road underdogs falling into this system won at an incredible 70% rate going 37-16. Undervalued by an average of 65 points!!


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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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