Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball
Baseball teams play their division far more games than they play any of the other divisions. This intensifies their hatred for one another as well as increases their familiarity with each other's strengths and weaknesses. Combining the two makes for really great competitive games where pitchers actually have less bearing on the game as most will believe.
Because detailed scouting reports are widely available to division rivals, a teams advantage is diminished. I originally began my analysis with the belief that a pitcher's orientation would be huge in a division rivalry game. For example, a team like the Oakland Athletics that hits incredibly well against lefties was 30-17 (+11.57 units) against lefties in 2005. Over the past 5 seasons, these Athletics were a whopping 138-89 (61%) +29 units versus lefties.
There exists a huge disparity when you analyze their performance against division rivals and not. The Athletics were a dismal 45-41 (-6 units) against Lefties in division rival games over the past 5 seasons. Compare that to their 93-48 +35 units versus lefties in non-division rival games.
What this teaches us is to bank on batting/pitching advantages during non-division rivalry games but to dismiss them in division rivalry games. This little tidbit of information will have me looking over any betting system I use to tweak them and improve them. You should do the same.
Good luck in the 2006 baseball season. |
