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Pitcher Orientation in Division Rivalry Games

Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 0.000000-0.000000, average Margin of Victory: -1.#IND00. Pt. MOV: -1.#IND00

Baseball teams play their division far more games than they play any of the other divisions. This intensifies their hatred for one another as well as increases their familiarity with each other's strengths and weaknesses. Combining the two makes for really great competitive games where pitchers actually have less bearing on the game as most will believe.

Because detailed scouting reports are widely available to division rivals, a teams advantage is diminished. I originally began my analysis with the belief that a pitcher's orientation would be huge in a division rivalry game. For example, a team like the Oakland Athletics that hits incredibly well against lefties was 30-17 (+11.57 units) against lefties in 2005. Over the past 5 seasons, these Athletics were a whopping 138-89 (61%) +29 units versus lefties.

There exists a huge disparity when you analyze their performance against division rivals and not. The Athletics were a dismal 45-41 (-6 units) against Lefties in division rival games over the past 5 seasons. Compare that to their 93-48 +35 units versus lefties in non-division rival games.

What this teaches us is to bank on batting/pitching advantages during non-division rivalry games but to dismiss them in division rivalry games. This little tidbit of information will have me looking over any betting system I use to tweak them and improve them. You should do the same.

Good luck in the 2006 baseball season.


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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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