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Home Teams in Game 2 of a Series
System
A visitor emailed us today asking what we thought about AL teams off a loss playing in the second game of a series. My guess is that this question was in response to the Game of the Year we easily cashed in on Wednesday with the Mariners at home.
We concluded that the Mariners were our AL "Want to Win" Game of the Year because they were headed into Game 3 with the series tied 1-1. Anybody could tell you that in order to win the series you would have to win game 3, sports junky or not. Of course there were other factors involved that we did not explicitly say on the website because A) some of the premium systems for sale on our site already did so and B) it would take too long. Long story short, it had less to do with losing than it did with the fact they lost embarassingly 14-4 in Game 2. And what did they do in Game 3? Annihilate Kris Benson for 7 runs in 2 full innings of work. See what motivation at the plate can do?
Okay so now we get back to the question at hand. Some of our premium systems are of this flavor. Taking a team at home off of a loss. It helps if that loss was as a huge favorite. Meaning, you lose as a -200 favorite, you smack the crap out of your opponent the very next game. Heck, I remember the Angels last year falling into that system. It was our last regular season GOY of the year and an easy winner. The Angels not only followed up that loss by a win but with 8+ wins.
Let's constrain ourselves to home favorites off a loss in Game 2 of a series to make the analysis simple. What we find is very striking.
Past Results
Blindly betting these teams has gone 36-20 this season for +10 units. In fact, it is +78 units over the past 6 full season plus this season. Whoa.
We know that underdogs in division rivalry games are generally very good bets so we do not want to go against them right? So let us remove division rivalry games from our system and we find a system that has gone +100 units during the same span.
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2012 | 11-3 | 0.785714 | 6.330000 | 0.452143 |
| 2011 | 7-2 | 0.777778 | 4.680000 | 0.520000 |
| 2010 | 9-6 | 0.600000 | -2.240000 | -0.149333 |
| 2009 | 10-3 | 0.769231 | 5.210000 | 0.400769 |
| 2008 | 15-4 | 0.789474 | 10.440000 | 0.549474 |
| 2007 | 10-9 | 0.526316 | -3.850000 | -0.202632 |
| 2006 | 8-7 | 0.533333 | -6.650000 | -0.443333 |
| 2005 | 20-4 | 0.833333 | 12.550000 | 0.522917 |
| 2004 | 15-5 | 0.750000 | 6.250000 | 0.312500 |
| 2003 | 17-10 | 0.629630 | -5.150000 | -0.190741 |
| 2002 | 18-10 | 0.642857 | -2.550000 | -0.091071 |
| 2001 | 9-4 | 0.692308 | 1.500000 | 0.115385 |
| 2000 | 5-4 | 0.555556 | -1.900000 | -0.211111 |
| 1999 | 11-4 | 0.733333 | 2.900000 | 0.193333 |
| Total | 165-75 | 0.687500 | 27.520000 | 0.114667 |
|---|
Total Scores: 1311.000000-936.000000, average Margin of Victory: 1.562500. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
E[x] is the expected value of return on a 1 unit bet. Basically, multiple it by 100 and you would get what the true point spread is. In the case of Year 2000, we saw teams being undervalued by a measly 6 points. So a -130 favorite really should be -136. Good day to all of you. AND WIN!
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