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The Dynamics of a Game 3 Baseball Series

8/6/06

The expected return on your investment of a $100 bet on teams in the following situations. Consult this chart whenever you are looking to bet on a team in the third and final game of a series.

The top column represents the outcomes of game 1 and 2 with the leftmost character representing game 1. [DR - division rival. NDR - non-division rival. IL - interleague]. The betting lines are dissected below.

  WW WL LW LL
DR -0.55 +0.55 -4.45 -4.70
NDR +5.50 -3.25 -1.93 -9.40
IL -12.7 +5.56 -10.2 +8.70

What we learn from all of this in terms of betting the third and final game of a series is:

  • Go for teams up 2-0 in a series so long as it is not an interleague game.
  • Go for interleague teams off of a loss in the third game of the series.

I am sure you guys were wondering if it mattered whether the team was at home or on the road in the third game of the series. We saw that road teams had an E[x] = -10.2 while home teams had an E[x] = -3.6. This makes sense in the sense that a home team has a higher propensity to be able to come back while a road team, mired in a slump, will invariably stay that way. Road teams down 2-0 in a non-Interleague series are overvalued by 4 points at home and a whopping 10 points on the road! But that overvaluation grows to over 15 points if they lost by exactly one run the previous game.

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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