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Betting Underdogs in Game 1 of a Season

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
20120-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20110-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20100-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20090-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20080-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20070-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20060-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20050-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20040-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20030-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20020-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20010-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20000-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
19990-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
Total0-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00

Total Scores: 0.000000-0.000000, average Margin of Victory: -1.#IND00. Pt. MOV: -1.#IND00

I decided to run the numbers on games where both the teams are playing their very first game of the season. I found something interesting for you all to consider.

Road teams had a slight historical advantage. Winning these games by an average of almost 0.40 runs a game. That is significant if you realize that averaged over every baseball game, home teams win by an average of 0.1 runs a game.

From a power ratings standpoint, this is a half point extra road teams should get in this scenario.

I am not advising you to go out and play every road team this season, that would be dumb. Our numbers could be statistical aberrations which leads me to the second thing I found.

Road teams were a paltry 4-11, -7.5 units last season to begin the season. Good thing we never blindly bet on a system, right?

I ran several scenarios like road favorites, road underdogs and found that road dogs over the past 7 years are 34-36, +15 units!

This seemed great except that it was 5-11, -4 units if they were AL division rivals. Excluding that set and we end up with a system that was 29-25, +19 units.

Only betting on National League division rivalry games, we end up with a system that is 15-11 +13 units. This system constrains the pool enough to drop the road record of 4-11 last year to 2-3. Not bad.

Teams that fit this scenario if billed an underdog in 2006 would be:

  1. Washington Nationals
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Chicago Cubs
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. San Francisco Giants

Let's see how home underdogs do. Home underdogs are 16-14, +12 units. You are right, there are not too many of them.

Home underdogs in the AL improved to 11-7, +12 units. So basically look to take NL Road Dogs and AL Home Dogs.

Check out our latest Free Baseball Picks to see who we end up taking.

Related Baseball Articles and Betting Systems

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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