I decided to run the numbers on games where both the teams are playing their very first game of the season. I found something interesting for you all to consider.
Road teams had a slight historical advantage. Winning these games by an average of almost 0.40 runs a game. That is significant if you realize that averaged over every baseball game, home teams win by an average of 0.1 runs a game.
From a power ratings standpoint, this is a half point extra road teams should get in this scenario.
I am not advising you to go out and play every road team this season, that would be dumb. Our numbers could be statistical aberrations which leads me to the second thing I found.
Road teams were a paltry 4-11, -7.5 units last season to begin the season. Good thing we never blindly bet on a system, right?
I ran several scenarios like road favorites, road underdogs and found that road dogs over the past 7 years are 34-36, +15 units!
This seemed great except that it was 5-11, -4 units if they were AL division rivals. Excluding that set and we end up with a system that was 29-25, +19 units.
Only betting on National League division rivalry games, we end up with a system that is 15-11 +13 units. This system constrains the pool enough to drop the road record of 4-11 last year to 2-3. Not bad.
Teams that fit this scenario if billed an underdog in 2006 would be:
- Washington Nationals
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants
Let's see how home underdogs do. Home underdogs are 16-14, +12 units. You are right, there are not too many of them.
Home underdogs in the AL improved to 11-7, +12 units. So basically look to take NL Road Dogs and AL Home Dogs.
Check out our latest Free Baseball Picks to see who we end up taking.
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