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Betting Underdogs in Game 1 of a Season

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 0.000000-0.000000, average Margin of Victory: -1.#IND00. Pt. MOV: -1.#IND00

I decided to run the numbers on games where both the teams are playing their very first game of the season. I found something interesting for you all to consider.

Road teams had a slight historical advantage. Winning these games by an average of almost 0.40 runs a game. That is significant if you realize that averaged over every baseball game, home teams win by an average of 0.1 runs a game.

From a power ratings standpoint, this is a half point extra road teams should get in this scenario.

I am not advising you to go out and play every road team this season, that would be dumb. Our numbers could be statistical aberrations which leads me to the second thing I found.

Road teams were a paltry 4-11, -7.5 units last season to begin the season. Good thing we never blindly bet on a system, right?

I ran several scenarios like road favorites, road underdogs and found that road dogs over the past 7 years are 34-36, +15 units!

This seemed great except that it was 5-11, -4 units if they were AL division rivals. Excluding that set and we end up with a system that was 29-25, +19 units.

Only betting on National League division rivalry games, we end up with a system that is 15-11 +13 units. This system constrains the pool enough to drop the road record of 4-11 last year to 2-3. Not bad.

Teams that fit this scenario if billed an underdog in 2006 would be:

  1. Washington Nationals
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Chicago Cubs
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. San Francisco Giants

Let's see how home underdogs do. Home underdogs are 16-14, +12 units. You are right, there are not too many of them.

Home underdogs in the AL improved to 11-7, +12 units. So basically look to take NL Road Dogs and AL Home Dogs.

Check out our latest Free Baseball Picks to see who we end up taking.

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This has a great Return on your Investment. The $100 bettor wins better than $7,000 per season using my systems.


Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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