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Underdog Against a Team Lacking Offense

5/9/11

The Brewers are favored to win but they are averaging 1.7 runs a game in their last 10 games.. even worse 1.2 runs a game L5. I don't care who you have starting games for you, but averaging those kinds of runs just not going to win you a lot of games. And if you are a favorite, forget about it. Here's another good system that is easy to follow. Dogs of +120 or higher in the first game of a series going against a team averaging fewer than 2 runs a game L5 are 79-95, +21 units the past 12 seasons. It was not a good play last year going -7 units but had 3 losing seasons, 9 winning seasons. This only works for the first game of a series because so many other things go into a second and third game of a series like revenge etc... This system would be better for divisional rivals but works well for nondivisional rivals too. This is an even stronger play for AL teams because AL game are expected to have more runs (DH hitter) therefore a team really has to suck if they are below 2 runs a game. The fact this is a nondivisional rivalry NL game makes it a regular 1 unit play or else we'd pounce on it.

Past Results for this System

Total Scores: 894.000000-968.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.379487. Pt. MOV: 0.000000