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Underdog Against a Team Lacking Offense

5/9/11

The Brewers are favored to win but they are averaging 1.7 runs a game in their last 10 games.. even worse 1.2 runs a game L5. I don't care who you have starting games for you, but averaging those kinds of runs just not going to win you a lot of games. And if you are a favorite, forget about it. Here's another good system that is easy to follow. Dogs of +120 or higher in the first game of a series going against a team averaging fewer than 2 runs a game L5 are 79-95, +21 units the past 12 seasons. It was not a good play last year going -7 units but had 3 losing seasons, 9 winning seasons. This only works for the first game of a series because so many other things go into a second and third game of a series like revenge etc... This system would be better for divisional rivals but works well for nondivisional rivals too. This is an even stronger play for AL teams because AL game are expected to have more runs (DH hitter) therefore a team really has to suck if they are below 2 runs a game. The fact this is a nondivisional rivalry NL game makes it a regular 1 unit play or else we'd pounce on it.

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
201210-80.5555566.5900000.366111
20117-140.333333-4.400000-0.209524
20106-150.285714-7.070000-0.336667
20098-70.5333333.9200000.261333
20086-60.5000003.3400000.278333
20074-70.363636-0.550000-0.050000
20066-70.4615381.8900000.145385
20058-60.5714295.9900000.427857
20043-60.333333-1.900000-0.211111
20037-80.4666672.9000000.193333
20027-70.5000002.7000000.192857
20017-70.5000002.9000000.207143
20008-70.5333335.5000000.366667
19995-60.4545451.4000000.127273
Total92-1110.45320223.2100000.114335

Total Scores: 940.000000-1003.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.310345. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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