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Dogs Off One Nothing Win
5/15/2011
Looking at today's games, we can see that one of the games yesterday in a tight-fisted 1-0 game. And it made me wonder, how did teams do if they were coming off such a game. For some reason, I expected the losing team would have that extra motivation to bounce back and especially if they were favorite in the following game. But in fact, the opposite is true. It is the winning team if they are a dog that has the value.
Underdogs off a 1-0 win do pretty good on their next game. They are 97-100 but +33.4 units the past 13 seasons including 4-0 this year... It does not matter whether they are facing the same opponent or entering into a new series. This applies to the Diamondbacks today against the Dodgers but we won't bet that game because there are some corresponding systems that say to go for the Dodgers as well.
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2012 | 2-2 | 0.500000 | 0.230000 | 0.057500 |
| 2011 | 11-9 | 0.550000 | 4.840000 | 0.242000 |
| 2010 | 8-11 | 0.421053 | -0.800000 | -0.042105 |
| 2009 | 8-6 | 0.571429 | 2.790000 | 0.199286 |
| 2008 | 9-9 | 0.500000 | 1.530000 | 0.085000 |
| 2007 | 7-6 | 0.538462 | 3.930000 | 0.302308 |
| 2006 | 8-8 | 0.500000 | 3.360000 | 0.210000 |
| 2005 | 8-12 | 0.400000 | 0.330000 | 0.016500 |
| 2004 | 11-6 | 0.647059 | 10.100000 | 0.594118 |
| 2003 | 5-9 | 0.357143 | -2.350000 | -0.167857 |
| 2002 | 8-10 | 0.444444 | 2.350000 | 0.130556 |
| 2001 | 9-9 | 0.500000 | 3.750000 | 0.208333 |
| 2000 | 8-6 | 0.571429 | 4.850000 | 0.346429 |
| 1999 | 4-8 | 0.333333 | -1.570000 | -0.130833 |
| Total | 106-111 | 0.488479 | 33.340000 | 0.153641 |
|---|
Total Scores: 934.000000-1012.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.359447. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
