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System:
Go for any home team with a better than 50% home record in the first game of a series if they are more than 10 games below 500 and going up against a team that has won less than 6 games L10.
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2011 | 3-4 | 0.428571 | -2.560000 | -0.365714 |
| 2010 | 6-3 | 0.666667 | 2.750000 | 0.305556 |
| 2009 | 3-3 | 0.500000 | 0.650000 | 0.108333 |
| 2008 | 13-11 | 0.541667 | -1.620000 | -0.067500 |
| 2007 | 7-7 | 0.500000 | -0.660000 | -0.047143 |
| 2006 | 9-9 | 0.500000 | -0.220000 | -0.012222 |
| 2005 | 12-14 | 0.461538 | -2.410000 | -0.092692 |
| 2004 | 2-8 | 0.200000 | -7.250000 | -0.725000 |
| 2003 | 5-3 | 0.625000 | 3.000000 | 0.375000 |
| 2002 | 11-8 | 0.578947 | 3.250000 | 0.171053 |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 0.500000 | 0.100000 | 0.050000 |
| 2000 | 6-1 | 0.857143 | 5.650000 | 0.807143 |
| 1999 | 3-1 | 0.750000 | 1.600000 | 0.400000 |
| Total | 81-73 | 0.525974 | 2.280000 | 0.014805 |
|---|
Total Scores: 800.000000-767.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.214286. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
Analysis:
This is a contrarion play because we are going for a team that is more than 10 games below 500. Joe public does not want to bet on a team that is so bad. But what the don't realize is that their good home record coupled with the added home field advantage of the first game of a series, this makes a decent play.
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