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An Offense in Motion Tends to Stay in Motion
by Peter Portero / Paul Bachar (06/23)
Pardon my Einsten-esque title. When a team is rolling offensively in baseball, they will tend to keep up their good fortunes. Any hitter in baseball will tell you that the sport is all about timing and if a hitter gets on a roll they will continue to be successful. So betting on team's with strong offensive number over their previous couple of games is an important angle in baseball. In fact, teams off of double digit run performances this season are on a tear.
The average number of runs scored per game is generally between 4-5 runs. If you double that total, you are in the 10 run range. So imagine betting on teams that are coming off games in which they scored double digit runs. You would have gone 101-79 this season. In fact, you would be +50 units over the past 6 seasons or so if you only focused on the games that occurred before July.
We found the system continues to work even if the game following their double digit performance was the start of a new series but it was not great. Just as Einstein said an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless there exists an external force to act against that motion. The start of a new series can tend to break up the momentum of a team.
Now we see ourselves betting on a system that is 517-440 +37 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season.
Another thing that can break this momentum is a change in the pitcher orientation. Having to face a lefty after a righty or vice versa can make a team have to start from scratch. By removing those games from our pallete, we see ourselves with an overall system that has gone a whopping 315-238, +58 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season. Including 45-30 +16 units this season.
To make this system pop, all you have to do is first eliminate intersections. An intersection would occur if both teams scored double digit runs, then remove the teams that have won 3 or fewer games L10.
