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An Offense in Motion Tends to Stay in Motion

by Peter Portero / Paul Bachar (06/23)

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
201256-420.57142915.0700000.153776
201150-430.537634-0.960000-0.010323
201061-490.55454510.2900000.093545
200960-400.60000017.9300000.179300
200867-610.5234382.9400000.022969
200771-530.57258117.1800000.138548
200691-590.60666735.4800000.236533
200552-530.495238-9.820000-0.093524
200468-700.492754-4.160000-0.030145
200385-650.5666679.4500000.063000
200286-520.62318823.8300000.172681
200194-730.56287410.5800000.063353
2000110-820.57291714.2500000.074219
199992-860.516854-14.500000-0.081461
Total1043-8280.557456127.5600000.068177

Total Scores: 9407.000000-8802.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.323356. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

Pardon my Einsten-esque title. When a team is rolling offensively in baseball, they will tend to keep up their good fortunes. Any hitter in baseball will tell you that the sport is all about timing and if a hitter gets on a roll they will continue to be successful. So betting on team's with strong offensive number over their previous couple of games is an important angle in baseball. In fact, teams off of double digit run performances this season are on a tear.

The average number of runs scored per game is generally between 4-5 runs. If you double that total, you are in the 10 run range. So imagine betting on teams that are coming off games in which they scored double digit runs. You would have gone 101-79 this season. In fact, you would be +50 units over the past 6 seasons or so if you only focused on the games that occurred before July.

We found the system continues to work even if the game following their double digit performance was the start of a new series but it was not great. Just as Einstein said an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless there exists an external force to act against that motion. The start of a new series can tend to break up the momentum of a team.

Now we see ourselves betting on a system that is 517-440 +37 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season.

Another thing that can break this momentum is a change in the pitcher orientation. Having to face a lefty after a righty or vice versa can make a team have to start from scratch. By removing those games from our pallete, we see ourselves with an overall system that has gone a whopping 315-238, +58 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season. Including 45-30 +16 units this season.

To make this system pop, all you have to do is first eliminate intersections. An intersection would occur if both teams scored double digit runs, then remove the teams that have won 3 or fewer games L10.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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