Looking Ahead in Baseball - An Introduction
8/5/06
Someone mentioned that we did not put enough analysis on looking ahead but we do. We have often said that when teams are playing a non-divisional rival, they will be more likely to save their bullpen if they have a division rival on deck. Division rivalry games are usually closer in terms of score and bring out the best in terms of competition from both squads. Having a good bullpen is vital for those games so a coach will save them if playing a "meaningless" game. Considering most teams are out of the playoffs come July, practically half the games on the board are meaningless.
So let us take a look at how teams do in the following situations. (D = division rival, I = interleague, N = non-divisional rival). The first letter will represent the current opponent and the second letter will represent the next opponent.
Keep in mind that there may be intersections. Like both teams falling into the DD situation.
| # of Road Series |
Win% |
Units |
E[x] |
| DD |
49.6% |
-78.0 |
-2.99 |
| DI |
50.8% |
-3.30 |
-1.07 |
| DN |
51.1% |
-15.8 |
-1.01 |
| ID |
52.5% |
+11.8 |
+3.5 |
| II |
50.6% |
-6.29 |
-0.94 |
| IN |
43.9% |
-31.4 |
-15.2 |
| ND |
50.7% |
-9.00 |
-0.58 |
| NI |
51.0% |
-1.13 |
-0.45 |
| NN |
50.1% |
-70.0 |
-1.97 |
Only full seasons from 1999-2005 are taken into account.
We are looking for a very negative E[x] for "go-against" angles. And we are looking for positive E[x] for "go-for" angles.
Here are some "tendencies" we have observed based on the above chart.
Teams playing a division rival will play better if they have a non-divisional opponent on deck.
- Reason: Considering their next game is against an opponent that is "meaningless", the ballplayers will give it all they have in the current game. The manager will also do all that he can with respect to his bullpen to get a win.
Playing for teams in interleague play with a divisional rival on deck and play against them if they do not.
- If they have a divisional foe on deck, they will generally look to get a win to carry momentum with them to their next game.
We will remove intersections and get down to the nitty gritty of which games to look for. In fact, we will use this also use this concept to explain some decent over-under systems for you all.
