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Free Home Favorites Betting System

System:

Go for a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games L10 coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs. They must have won 3+ games L7 Home Games while the opponent has only won 5 or fewer games L10.

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
201213-80.6190483.1400000.149524
201118-130.5806452.0500000.066129
20109-40.6923084.1200000.316923
200915-70.6818186.5300000.296818
20089-90.500000-1.420000-0.078889
20075-70.416667-3.530000-0.294167
200610-110.476190-3.600000-0.171429
200511-100.523810-1.010000-0.048095
20049-80.529412-0.650000-0.038235
200315-30.83333311.4000000.633333
200212-70.6315793.6000000.189474
200116-160.500000-3.750000-0.117188
200018-140.5625001.6500000.051562
199910-80.5555560.5000000.027778
Total170-1250.57627119.0300000.064508

Total Scores: 1436.000000-1298.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.467797. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

Analysis:

If your spread is less than -110 then you should be the winner. The team in this situation will look to their home field advantage to pick them up after their loss. It is easy to assume they will bounce back considering that they have been playing well coming into the game.

 

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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