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System:
Go for a road favorite that has won 6+ road games L10 going against an opponent that has won 3 or less home games L5 and won 7 or less home games L15. This ought to be the first game of the series in which the opponent was coming off a road game.
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2011 | 1-5 | 0.166667 | -5.080000 | -0.846667 |
| 2010 | 27-22 | 0.551020 | -3.060000 | -0.062449 |
| 2009 | 15-18 | 0.454545 | -7.720000 | -0.233939 |
| 2008 | 22-16 | 0.578947 | 2.570000 | 0.067632 |
| 2007 | 28-13 | 0.682927 | 11.350000 | 0.276829 |
| 2006 | 19-29 | 0.395833 | -18.310000 | -0.381458 |
| 2005 | 39-21 | 0.650000 | 11.360000 | 0.189333 |
| 2004 | 28-21 | 0.571429 | 0.200000 | 0.004082 |
| 2003 | 45-28 | 0.616438 | 4.900000 | 0.067123 |
| 2002 | 24-24 | 0.500000 | -12.100000 | -0.252083 |
| 2001 | 33-22 | 0.600000 | 1.900000 | 0.034545 |
| 2000 | 19-22 | 0.463415 | -9.470000 | -0.230976 |
| 1999 | 37-28 | 0.569231 | -4.500000 | -0.069231 |
| Total | 337-269 | 0.556106 | -27.960000 | -0.046139 |
|---|
Total Scores: 3182.000000-2669.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.846535. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
Analysis:
Here we see ourselves going against the home team in the first game of a series but only because our road team is playing well on the road and is coming off a road game. If they are coming off a home game, there is always the comfort factor of leaving home and having to travel. Well, our team has already been on the road so there will be no need to adjust. They will just continue to play well.
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