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System:
Go for the home team in the first game of a series if they are coming off a series win or tie versus a team off a straight up loss as well as a series loss. This should be later than game #20 and the home team must either be an underdog or not a favorite more than -130. Our team must be coming into this series putting up good offensive numbers so they must have scored 5 or more runs in their previous game.
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2012 | 19-10 | 0.655172 | 11.010000 | 0.379655 |
| 2011 | 14-16 | 0.466667 | -1.610000 | -0.053667 |
| 2010 | 18-19 | 0.486486 | -1.130000 | -0.030541 |
| 2009 | 11-10 | 0.523810 | 2.230000 | 0.106190 |
| 2008 | 19-18 | 0.513514 | -0.180000 | -0.004865 |
| 2007 | 24-18 | 0.571429 | 5.520000 | 0.131429 |
| 2006 | 16-19 | 0.457143 | -3.400000 | -0.097143 |
| 2005 | 17-18 | 0.485714 | -2.030000 | -0.058000 |
| 2004 | 20-12 | 0.625000 | 9.400000 | 0.293750 |
| 2003 | 28-12 | 0.700000 | 20.800000 | 0.520000 |
| 2002 | 17-10 | 0.629630 | 6.700000 | 0.248148 |
| 2001 | 16-12 | 0.571429 | 3.450000 | 0.123214 |
| 2000 | 25-15 | 0.625000 | 13.300000 | 0.332500 |
| 1999 | 20-13 | 0.606061 | 8.900000 | 0.269697 |
| Total | 264-202 | 0.566524 | 72.960000 | 0.156567 |
|---|
Total Scores: 2318.000000-2142.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.377682. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
Analysis:
The home field advantage in baseball is not as easy to define as it is in other sports. Home field advantage is actually strongest during the first game of a series. If our home team is putting up good offensive numbers they will be coming into the series with a great deal of confidence and will look to extend their streak. Since their opponent is coming off a series loss and has to travel to an opponent's city, they are at a small disadvantage physically and mentally.
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