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Boston Red Sox Betting Trends Part 3 of 3
Past Results for this System
| Year | Record | Win | Units | E[X] |
|---|
| 2012 | 9-16 | 0.360000 | -10.640000 | -0.425600 |
| 2011 | 9-6 | 0.600000 | 2.150000 | 0.143333 |
| 2010 | 8-4 | 0.666667 | 2.410000 | 0.200833 |
| 2009 | 4-1 | 0.800000 | 2.990000 | 0.598000 |
| 2008 | 5-2 | 0.714286 | 2.250000 | 0.321429 |
| 2007 | 5-1 | 0.833333 | 3.250000 | 0.541667 |
| 2006 | 7-5 | 0.583333 | 1.540000 | 0.128333 |
| 2005 | 3-2 | 0.600000 | -0.300000 | -0.060000 |
| 2004 | 4-0 | 1.000000 | 4.000000 | 1.000000 |
| 2003 | 7-0 | 1.000000 | 7.450000 | 1.064286 |
| 2002 | 10-2 | 0.833333 | 7.750000 | 0.645833 |
| 2001 | 7-8 | 0.466667 | -4.100000 | -0.273333 |
| 2000 | 9-6 | 0.600000 | 0.900000 | 0.060000 |
| 1999 | 7-3 | 0.700000 | 3.800000 | 0.380000 |
| Total | 94-56 | 0.626667 | 23.450000 | 0.156333 |
|---|
Total Scores: 827.000000-703.000000, average Margin of Victory: 0.826667. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
The pervasive theme surrounding these Boston Red Sox when we handicap them is their ability to bounce back off a loss at home. What if we compound just one loss to two losses, will we see a strong betting trend for these Red Sox?
Yes, we do.
If the Boston Red Sox are playing at home and have lost their previous 2 home games, the Red Sox are 21-6, +10 units over the past 3 seasons. This improves to 63-28, +20 units over the past 7.
Motivation is generally strongest when you play against the team that just beat you. Since our analysis of having had 2 consecutive home losses could have be spread among two different teams or even a series on the road in between, we ought to extend our analysis to stay within the same series.
In the third and fourth games of a home series, the Red Sox are a perfect 7-0, +7 units the past 3 seasons if they are coming off of two consecutive home losses. They win these games by an average margin of 3.14 runs per game.
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