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Boston Red Sox Betting Trends Part 3 of 3
The pervasive theme surrounding these Boston Red Sox when we handicap them is their ability to bounce back off a loss at home. What if we compound just one loss to two losses, will we see a strong betting trend for these Red Sox?
Yes, we do.
If the Boston Red Sox are playing at home and have lost their previous 2 home games, the Red Sox are 21-6, +10 units over the past 3 seasons. This improves to 63-28, +20 units over the past 7.
Motivation is generally strongest when you play against the team that just beat you. Since our analysis of having had 2 consecutive home losses could have be spread among two different teams or even a series on the road in between, we ought to extend our analysis to stay within the same series.
In the third and fourth games of a home series, the Red Sox are a perfect 7-0, +7 units the past 3 seasons if they are coming off of two consecutive home losses. They win these games by an average margin of 3.14 runs per game.
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