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Who do you think will win the World Series?
 Rangers   Yankees   Dodgers
 Devil Rays   Red Sox   Phillies
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Baseball Favorites to Avoid Betting

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]

Total Scores: 43987.000000-49342.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.550529. Pt. MOV: 0.000000

The public loves betting favorites because they win. They win at about a 58% clip in baseball. The problem is that the money line odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Blindly betting you would much rather bet on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.

Regardless, there are some favorites in baseball to avoid betting. I always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Home dogs are the best thing since sliced bread so I try to avoid betting against them. Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game.

Another type of favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump. For example, betting against favorites that have less than 4 wins L10 has had profitable seasons in 4 of the past 5 years. During that span, blindly betting against these favorites have been +36 units.

Favorites that I commonly avoid are the ones in the American League. The American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the AL because of the DH. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites. In fact, betting against American League favorites playing division rivals would have won you +63 units over the past 3 seasons. Remember all those games the Devil Rays burned the Yankees in the 2005 MLB Season?

Added 6/21/09: Another kind of a favorite to avoid is one that is coming into a series off a win and going against a team that just got swept. Momentum is a killer and dogs that are losing will have trouble mustering up enough of effort to overcome the odds and win.

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All the information posted on this site are as a result of our 10 year's of research and analysis.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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