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Baseball Favorites to Avoid Betting
Past Results for this System
|Year ||Record ||Win ||Units ||E[X] |
Total Scores: 43987.000000-49342.000000, average Margin of Victory: -0.550529. Pt. MOV: 0.000000
The public loves betting favorites because they win. They win at about a 58% clip in baseball. The problem is that the money line odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Blindly betting you would much rather bet on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.
Regardless, there are some favorites in baseball to avoid betting. I always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Home dogs are the best thing since sliced bread so I try to avoid betting against them. Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game.
Another type of favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump. For example, betting against favorites that have less than 4 wins L10 has had profitable seasons in 4 of the past 5 years. During that span, blindly betting against these favorites have been +36 units.
Favorites that I commonly avoid are the ones in the American League. The American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the AL because of the DH. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites. In fact, betting against American League favorites playing division rivals would have won you +63 units over the past 3 seasons. Remember all those games the Devil Rays burned the Yankees in the 2005 MLB Season?
Added 6/21/09: Another kind of a favorite to avoid is one that is coming into a series off a win and going against a team that just got swept. Momentum is a killer and dogs that are losing will have trouble mustering up enough of effort to overcome the odds and win.
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