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Capitalizing on Motivated Favorites

Past Results for this System

Year Record Win Units E[X]
20120-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20110-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20100-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20090-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20080-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20070-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20060-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20050-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20040-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20030-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20020-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20010-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
20000-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
19990-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00
Total0-0-1.#IND000.000000-1.#IND00

Total Scores: 0.000000-0.000000, average Margin of Victory: -1.#IND00. Pt. MOV: -1.#IND00

Even though I love to preach betting on underdogs in baseball, I admit I love my favorites too. Favorites win at a higher percentage and can break you out of a slump when the underdogs we bet on are not hitting. I like to define favorites as a "team that should win". When they are motivated in exactly the right way, chances are they will win.

In basketball, we know teams are motivated off a loss. This does not directly correlate in baseball because teams get stuck in a slump and are more prone to loss off of a loss. What people probably do not realize is that it does apply for favorites. League-wide, our baseball favorites will generally be teams that are good and a loss will not necessarily phase them.

Bluntly put, underdogs play better off a win, favorites play better off a loss. In fact, there is almost 3% value inherent in the line when taking favorites off a loss stretched back over 7 seasons. So now it is time to look at some additional factors about the loss that can help us win.

I tried to see how our favorite did in the first game of a series if they are playing off a loss and saw a huge 7% difference in the line. Our favorite is actually a very good go against if it was the first game of the series. Taking their bad spirits from the loss into a new series can hurt. Plus if you lose, you generally want to get that game back against the same team that beat you not another team, right?

It is evident that we want our favorites to be off of a loss and playing against the very same team that beat them as one of our betting angles.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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