There are many sayings in baseball that are very good go against angles. With the notoriety of the ATS records in the NBA and NFL, it is easy to determine if a betting proposition is bad or good.
In baseball, since we deal with the money line, it is hard to determine if a system is good or not based purely on records. One example that I will give you is about the double header in baseball. Most sports handicapers and lay baseball fans will tell you that it is tough for a team to win both games of a double header. I have noticed that after the first game of a double header, more action gets placed on the loser of Game 1 in the second game. Bettors are applying this theory and trying to win money out of it.
It was not until now that I decided to run the numbers and see if this saying is in fact true. It is not. Teams that win Game 1 come out in Game 2 having a 109-92 record +5.5 units. Blindly betting for the winner of game 1 was money over the past 7 seasons. This is exactly what the oddsmakers want knowing that the majority of the betting action would be going towards the other team.
I ran the numbers and compared whether or not the winner was the home team or the road team and found that if they were a home team, they were 67-44 +10 units. This makes perfect sense to me now though, considering the fact that the hometown stadium saw their team win at home in Game 1 keeps them fired up and excited for Game 2. This extra bit of a home field advantage coupled with additional betting action on the opposite side provides the building blocks of a good system.
If my home field advantage angle is true then the more runs scored by the Game 1 winner would correlate to a better winning percentage in Game 2 because fans are excited by seeing runs scored. If our home team scored 7+ runs in their previous game, they ended up 38-18 +14 units over the past 7 seasons. The makings of our first great double header betting system.
If it is +14 units when the team scores so many runs, then it is negative units otherwise. Seeing an angle like this makes us have to go back to square one. Let us say we want to bet on the loser of game 1 but their opponent scored fewer than 5 runs. We would have a system that was 27-23 +8 units. It is barely profitable when our team is playing on the road but at home it improves to 13-7 +7 units, the makings of our second great double header betting system.
We basically have two good betting systems saying to go for the home team. One in a situation where they are coming off an impressive win. Another where they are coming off a loss. Combined the systems are a 51-25 for +21 units.
Look for our article "Road Teams in the Second Game of a Double Header".
All the information posted on this site are as a result of our 10 year's of research and analysis.
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