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Handicapping the Cincinnati Reds

Last Updated: 7/5/08

Last 5 Games 6/30/08 Pirates   W4-3 vs L 7/1/08 Pirates   L5-6 vs L 7/2/08 Pirates   L5-9 vs R 7/3/08 Nationals   W5-3 vs L 7/4/08 Nationals   W3-0 vs R Next 5 Games 7/5/08 Nationals   TBD vs R 7/6/08 Nationals   TBD - 7/8/08 @Cubs   TBD - 7/9/08 @Cubs   TBD - 7/10/08 @Cubs   TBD - 2008 Scores/Schedule Today's Pitching Matchups Fogg(R) vs Redding(R)

Record 41-47 (overall) 24-19 (home) 17-28 (road) Average Runs/Game 4.40 (last 5) 4.30 (last 10) 3.40 (last 20) 4.26 (season) WINS Last X 6 (last 10) 9 (last 20)

Pitcher	Record	Units
Harang(R)	8-10	-2.70
Arroyo(R)	9-10	0.70
Cueto(R)	8-10	-3.46
Fogg(R)	2-2	0.60
Volquez(R)	12-5	6.49
Belisle(R)	1-5	-4.00
Bailey(R)	0-3	-3.34
Thompson(R)	1-2	-0.77

Angle	W	L	Units	E[x]
1st Half of Season	36	45	-8.99	-11.1
2nd half of season	5	2	2.51	35.9
National League	32	41	-11.13	-15.2
American League	9	6	4.65	31.0
Divsional Rival	11	18	-10.94	-37.7
Non-Divsional Rival	21	23	-0.19	-0.4
Interleague Game	9	6	4.65	31.0
As a dog	16	26	-5.81	-13.8
As a favorite	25	19	-0.67	-1.5
Off a win	19	21	-2.38	-5.9
Off a loss	22	25	-4.10	-8.7
Off being shut out	4	3	1.29	18.4
Off scoring DD	3	1	2.31	57.8
Series Game 1	11	17	-6.44	-23.0
Series Game 2	14	14	-0.05	-0.2
Series Game 3	13	12	0.01	0.0
Series Game 4	1	3	-2.00	-50.0
At Home	24	19	2.34	5.4
On the Road	17	28	-8.82	-19.6
Off LL	14	12	3.03	11.7
Off WW	7	11	-5.34	-29.7
5+ WL10	16	20	-6.52	-18.1
7+ WL10	2	5	-3.01	-43.0
<=3 WL10	16	13	3.33	11.5
<=5 WL10	33	34	-2.09	-3.1
Against team off SO	1	2	-0.41	-13.7
Vs. team off DD runs	4	2	2.48	41.3
Vs. team off W (G1)	7	11	-4.49	-24.9
Vs. team off L (G1)	4	6	-1.95	-19.5
Off W (G1)	4	9	-5.45	-41.9
Off L (G1)	7	8	-0.99	-6.6
1st Home Series	10	8	-1.13	-6.3
2nd Home Series	10	3	7.15	55.0
3rd Home Series	0	5	-5.92	-118.4
1st Road Series	8	11	-1.85	-9.7
2nd Road Series	6	11	-4.78	-28.1
3rd Road Series	3	6	-2.19	-24.3
L-->L	5	4	-0.20	-2.2
R-->R	14	18	-3.47	-10.8
L-->R	11	12	-1.21	-5.3
R-->L	11	12	-1.60	-7.0
Diff. Orientation	22	24	-2.81	-6.1
opTeam Diff. Orientation	2	6	-4.36	-54.5

E[x] - Definition, E[x] vs Odds.

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